View | Why India's pragmatic approach to the Russia-Ukraine war makes sense

The seeds of the current Ukraine-Russia conflict were sown in 1991 when the former declared independence from the USSR. In 2005, pro-Russian Viktor Yanukovich was elected as president but amidst vote-rigging allegations and massive protests, had to step down in favour of Viktor Yushchenko, who promised to take the country away from Russian influence and towards NATO and EU.

Perhaps belatedly realising the sheer enormity of the task he had set for himself — Russia and Ukraine have a shared and closely intertwined cultural, linguistic, and historical heritage — Yanukovich changed his stance around the turn of the last decade and became pro-Kremlin, an about-face that was not appreciated by Ukrainians, leading to the Euromaidan protests and his subsequent ouster from office. Fast forward to 2019 and Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the current Ukrainian president who is in news for rallying his troops against the invasion from the frontlines, took office and initiated Ukraine’s shift to the West again, a shift that among other factors has led to Russia’s invasion.

The point of the above historical soliloquy was to highlight the fact that the Russia-Ukraine war is, to put it simply, complicated. There are a lot of factors involved and while the West is unequivocally condemning Russia for triggering the war, the EU and NATO have vested interests in ensuring the continuity of a friendly regime in Ukraine: The alternative is to share borders with a nuclear-armed Russia, a prospect that the latter does not relish either.

As a country that is close to Washington, and has a long history of friendship and cooperation with Russia, India finds itself in a unique position. There have been a lot of calls, both internally and externally, for India to step up as an emerging global superpower and all-out Russia’s aggression. After all, invading a neighboring country in the guise of preventing genocide simply because it is drifting away is against accepted international norms, akin to a school bully punching a weaker kid because they made friends with someone else.

India has taken a very pragmatic approach to the entire situation. Indian diplomats have time and again stressed the need for dialogue between Russia and Ukraine in different forums including the UN, however, India has also been careful to avoid any direct criticism of Russia, and has abstained itself from resolutions condemning Russian aggression in both, the United Nations Security Council and the United Nations General Assembly.

The three key arguments in favour of India’s pragmatic approach — that leans towards Russia, without outrightly alienating the western powers — include:

The coming April will mark the 75th anniversary of the Indo-Russian diplomatic relations, a relationship that covers areas spanning politics, security, trade and economy, defence, science and technology, and culture. Russia calls India a special and privileged strategic partner and has suited actions to words many times. For instance, it used its veto power (as Russia/Soviet Union) 6 times to block UN resolutions against India, including during our war against Portugal's presence on the subcontinent (A NATO member, during Goa liberation), and thrice in 1957, 1962 and 1971 to block resolutions that sought UN intervention to resolve the Indo-Pak Kashmir conflict.

Surrounded on two sides by what can at best be called unfriendly neighbours, maintaining its military might is a pressing concern for India. Today, over 70 percent of our military armaments are of Russian or Soviet origin. Whether it is our main battle tank force (Russian T-72M1 and T-90S tanks), our lone operational aircraft carrier INS Vikramaditya (refurbished Soviet ship), our sole nuclear-powered submarine (on lease from Russia), or even our Air Force, with its backbone of Mig-21 and Su-30MKI jets, India has an overwhelming dependency on Russian-made military systems.

In recent years, India has diversified its arms exports to other countries such as Israel and France and started manufacturing weapons in the country, however, Russia remains a key military ally and supplier to India. In December last year, the two countries signed a contract (off-shelf procurement + a joint venture to manufacture the bulk of the weapons in Amethi, India) for 670,000 AK-203 Kalashnikov assault rifles that will replace the in-service INSAS rifle.

Between the collapse of the Soviet Union and its own rapid rise across economic, military, and political spheres, China has been on the ascendant as a counterweight to global American hegemony. However, if world history and the cold war era are anything to go by, a bipolar world is not a good idea on a planet with nuclear-armed countries.

As one of the other great regional powers, India can help create a powerful third axis. It is a role it has played during the US-Soviet rivalry, albeit from a position of lesser strength. Considering China’s often cavalier and belligerent attitude towards its neighbours including India, we need allies like Russia that have publicly supported and spoken in favour of India’s role in a multipolar world.

As arguably the single greatest power in Asia, China could also stand to gain by simply rushing in to fill any vacuums in the current power dynamic created if Russia loses its stature and influence. India can also ill-afford a situation where Russia jumps into a closer partnership with China, an alliance that could come easily considering how both Russia and China are antagonistic towards the US — albeit to varying degrees — and could very well exclude India, thanks to our history with China.

While Russia seems content with India staying away from open criticism, Western powers have expressed disappointment with India’s limited response. President Biden had earlier referred to “unresolved consultations" with India on the Ukraine War. More recently, speaking to Senators, top U.S. diplomat Donald Lu said that no efforts had been spared to persuade India to vote against Russia in response to the resolutions tabled in the UN.

However, on being asked whether India’s non-alignment with the US on the Ukraine issue and its purchase of the S-400 systems from Russia could attract repercussions under the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA), he was also quick to add that “...... India is a really important security partner of ours now and that we value moving forward that partnership.”

At present, neither of the sides need India’s voice on their side badly enough to try any drastic measures or strong statements that could have the reverse effect and push the rising Asian power in the arms of the opposite camp.

So far, the Indian diplomatic engine has done a good job of walking a delicate line between the Russian and the Euro-American blocs over the Ukraine conflict. Whether we can continue along this path while continuing to urge a resolution to this war through dialogue will depend on a constantly shifting spectrum of international factors and new developments on the war front, including how long it drags on for without a definitive victory for either side.

For now, a pragmatic approach avoiding an irrevocable and permanent alignment to either of the sides appears to be the best course forward for India, which it should be remembered, was also one of the founding signatories of the global non-aligned movement.