US Speaker Election: Here are all possible scenarios — with or without Kevin McCarthy

McCarthy needs 218 votes to become Speaker of the 435-member House of Representatives, but has been unable to muster more than 202 votes. In contrast, Hakeem Jeffries of New York, who succeeded Nancy Pelosi as the leader of the House Democrats, won the support of all 212 members of his caucus across all 11 rounds.

This is already the most protracted election for the Speaker since 1859 after it broke a century-old record and went beyond nine ballots.

There are multiple scenarios which could play out when voting resumes on Friday (January 6).

This would perhaps be the easiest and most unlikely option. If McCarthy were to drop out of the race, there is still a chance that the California Republican can save face while the rest of his party rallies around a more acceptable candidate. But McCarthy has vowed multiple times that he will not relent until he is elected Speaker.

The United States Constitution sets no limits on the number of ballots that must be held before a Speaker is elected, or even a deadline. In the pre-Civil War era, in 1859, a total of 133 rounds were held over two months before William Pennington of New Jersey, a Republican, was elected Speaker.

If McCarthy sticks to his guns and the current impasse continues, the United States could be in for a long wait before legislative business can resume at Capitol Hill.

The second scenario involves at least 218 Republicans — the magic number — to reject McCarthy in one round of voting, which would make it clear to the former minority leader that he no longer has the support he is still desperately trying to muster. This could pave the way for a new consensus candidate — such as Steve Scalise of Louisiana, whose name has frequently come up as a possible candidate, in the absence of McCarthy.

Scalise definitely has the leadership chops — he has already been elected the House majority leader after McCarthy threw his hat into the speakership race, and also served as the minority whip under McCarthy in the previous term of the Congress.

Through multiple rounds of voting on Thursday, one Republican marked themselves as 'present' — in effect abstaining, as 'present' votes are not counted towards the final tally. As a last ditch attempt, McCarthy could convince those who are opposed to him, to vote 'present' instead of voting for him. This way, the race will boil down to whoever has the higher votes between himself and Jeffries. This is, of course, assuming it doesn't backfire as McCarthy still needs to persuade 16-18 more Republicans to vote for him. This appears unlikely, given that 20 of the 222 elected Republicans stand against him. In such a scenario, Jeffries will become the unlikely US Speaker of the House.

This is certainly a plausible, if impossible, scenario. The US Constitution does not require an elected member of the House to become Speaker. Any American citizen could become Speaker if s/he has a majority of the votes. This was, perhaps, the rationale behind Floridian Representative Matt Gaetz twice voting for former president Donald Trump — in the seventh and eighth rounds.

After the House was adjourned on Thursday, frenetic backroom negotiations began between the McCarthy camp and the Never Keviners. Whether or not those talks have had the desired result for McCarthy will become clear when voting resumes today in a few hours' time.