US Presidential Election | Nikki Haley drops out — is Donald Trump out of the woods?

Donald Trump greets supporters after he speaks at a Super Tuesday election night party at Mar-a-Lago in Palm Beach, Florida, USA. (Image; AP)

Over the past few months, Trump has been making more court appearances than campaign speeches, in trials both civil and criminal. The outcome of the civil trials — two of which he already lost in New York — doesn't matter. It is the outcome of the criminal cases that he faces that could determine whether or not Trump will run for president.

Trump has been indicted in four criminal cases. In Washington, DC, he faces four felony charges related to his attempts to overturn the 2020 election. In Georgia, he is accused of 13 felonies for his interference in the state's election. New York sees him facing 34 felony charges in connection with hush money payments to a porn star. Lastly, in Florida, he grapples with 40 felony counts for retaining classified documents after his term and obstructing the government's efforts to recover them.

According to PBS News, "What's at stake now for Trump is not just his finances, but possibly his freedom."

In a nutshell, if Trump is found guilty in either of the four cases, he faces jail time, potentially derailing his presidential bid.

The United States Supreme Court has paused the Washington, DC, trial as it will deliberate on Trump's claim that a president is immune from criminal charges for actions taken while in office.

The hush money trial, in which Trump is accused of paying $130,000 to porn star Stormy Daniels, could be more of a pressing issue for the former president. As per CBS, there is some doubt about the strength of the case brought forth by the prosecutors, but In 2018, Michael Cohen, Trump's former lawyer, was found guilty of similar charges and subsequently sentenced to a three-year prison term.

For the moment, it appears that the only impact the criminal cases will have on Trump's candidacy is that the hearings will require him to be present in the courtroom, and could eat into his time spent on the campaign trail.

According to a Financial Times analysis, the US Constitution does not explicitly forbid convicted felons from holding the position of president. Notably, social activist Eugene V. Debs ran for president in 1920 from a prison cell.

However, some voters express that their choice in the presidential election might be impacted by whether Trump faces convictions for serious offences. Trump's legal team contends that conducting trials could unfairly influence the voting process, while others argue that Americans should be aware of Trump's legal standing before casting their votes.

Nevertheless, the likelihood of all four criminal cases reaching the juries by the November election is diminishing, FT noted, adding that this could work to Trump's advantage.

Donald Trump speaks at a Super Tuesday election night party. (Image: AP)Vucci)

According to The New York Times, prosecutors argue that under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment of the US Constitution, Trump is disqualified from holding office as it prohibits individuals who have “engaged in insurrection or rebellion” after swearing allegiance to the Constitution.

The US Congress has the authority to identify either specific groups of individuals affected by this section (like those who fought for the Confederacy in the US Civil War) or particular crimes that, upon conviction, would result in disqualification.

However, the current political landscape makes it highly unlikely for a divided Congress to undertake such measures. Additionally, none of the charges brought against Trump carry an automatic penalty of disqualification.

Should Trump secure the 1,215 delegates needed for the Republican party nomination — and he is on track to do so my mid-March — the GOP lacks a procedure to officially nominate an alternative candidate. According to the party's convention rules, if a delegate attempts to endorse a candidate other than the one to whom the primary results have bound them, such support will not be acknowledged.

In short, while Trump's road to the White House is rocky, it is not impassable.