US jobless claims inch up, but remain historically low amidst Fed's tightening

The Federal Reserve began raising interest rates last year to combat the inflation that surged as the result of an unexpectedly strong economic rebound from the COVID-19 recession of 2020. The Fed has raised its benchmark rate 11 times since March 2022.

And inflation has eased. Consumer prices were up 3.1% from a year earlier, down from a four-decade high of 9.1% in June 2022 but still above the Fed's 2% target. The Fed has left rates alone at its last three meetings — most recently last week — and is now forecasting that it will reverse policy and cut rates three times next year.

When the Fed started raising rates, many economists predicted that the United States — the world's largest economy — would slide into recession. But the economy and the job market have proven surprisingly resilient. The unemployment rate, for example, has come in below 4% for 22 straight months, the longest such streak since the 1960s.

The combination of decelerating inflation and low unemployment has raised hopes that the Fed is managing a so-called soft landing — raising rates just enough to tame inflation without causing a recession.