Turkey Election 2024 | Challenges before President Erdogan, global impact and what's next

A third national candidate, Sinan Oğan, emerged as a potential kingmaker after picking up 5.17 percent of the vote, the Guardian reported. The voter turnout was recorded at 88.9 percent.

Since no challenger secured a majority in Sunday polls, a runoff will be held on May 28.

1. Erdogan has governed Turkey as either prime minister or president since 2003. The elections, dubbed to be the "toughest political test", could end his 20-year rule and reverberate well beyond Turkey's borders.

2. The presidential vote will decide not only who leads Turkey but also whether it reverts to a more secular, democratic path, how it will handle its severe cost of living crisis, and manage key relations with Russia, the Middle East and the West.

3. The public outrage over rising inflation is among other challenges that Erdogan is facing in this election. The inflation in the country had topped 85 percent in October 2022 as the lira currency collapsed, Reuters reported. Turks have also faced a sharp decline in living standards in recent years.

4. Erdogan drew flak over his handling of the February 6 earthquake in southern Turkey that killed over 50,000 people, leveled cities and left millions without homes. His political adversaries alleged the government was slow to respond and that its failure to enforce building codes is to blame for the high death toll.

Some even point to government malfeasance after a 1999 earthquake in northwestern Turkey near the city of Izmit that killed about 18,000 people, saying that taxes imposed from that disaster were misspent and worsened the effects of this year's quake.

As one of President Vladimir Putin's closest allies, a defeat for Erdogan would likely unnerve the Kremlin but comfort the Biden administration, as well as many European and Middle Eastern leaders who had troubled relations with Erdogan.

The highly divisive and populist Erdogan is seeking a third consecutive term as president this year. He served three stints as prime minister. He already is Turkey’s longest-serving leader.

The 2024 presidential and parliamentary elections could be the most challenging yet for the 69-year-old Erdogan, reports said.

Most opinion polls point to a slight lead by his opponent, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, who heads the secular, center-left Republican People’s Party, or CHP.

The outcome of the presidential race could well be determined in a runoff vote May 28.

Turkey's longest-serving leader has turned the NATO member country of 85 million into a global player, modernised it through megaprojects, and built a military industry sought by foreign states, Reuters reported.

Erdogan's nationalist policies, often confrontational stance against the West and moves that have raised Islam's profile in the country continue to resonate among conservative supporters.

They point to an economic boom in the first half of his rule that lifted many people out of poverty, adding that his past successes are proof of his ability to turn things around.

“There is an economic crisis in Turkey, we can’t deny it. And yes, this economic crisis has had a huge impact on us,” said Sabit Celik, a 38-year-old shop owner selling cleaning products in Istanbul. “But still, I don’t think anyone else (but Erdogan) can come and fix this.”

Many also point to major infrastructure projects begun during his tenure — highways, bridges, airports, hospitals, and low-income housing.

Erdogan has announced a series of spending measures to bring temporary relief to those hardest-hit by inflation, including raising minimum wages and pensions, enacting measures to allow some people to take early retirement, and providing assistance to consumers for electricity and natural gas.

He also has focused on the defense sector, boosting production of drones and fighter jets and building an amphibious landing vessel that the government describes as “the world’s first drone carrier."

Erdogan performed better than expected in the election held Sunday, and the People’s Alliance led by his party retained a majority in Turkey's 600-seat parliament.

Analysts say that gives the Turkish leader an edge in the runoff because voters may want to avoid having different factions running the executive and legislative branches.

Erdogan said as much early Monday.

“We have no doubt that the preference of our nation, which gave the majority in parliament to the People’s Alliance, will be in favor of trust and stability in the (second round),” the president told his supporters in Ankara.

Kilicdaroglu, the leader of the Republican People’s Party, or CHP, said he was certain of a second-round victory, but Sunday's results indicate he could struggle to attract enough votes even though he was the candidate of the six-party Nation Alliance.

According to Reuters, analysts also warned of economic turbulence in the next two weeks. Markets were watching the elections to see if Turkey would return to more traditional economic policies, as promised by Kilidaroglu.

Experts said Erdogan’s economic policies, which ran contrary to mainstream theories, led to the country's currency crisis and soaring inflation.

The Turkish stock exchange, Borsa Istanbul BIST 100 index, dropped 6.2 percent at Monday’s opening before recovering some ground.