Taliban crisis pushes up dry fruit prices; festive demand may make matters worse

"We are keeping an eye on the developments in Afghanistan. Imports from there come through the transit route of Pakistan. At the moment, Taliban has stopped the movement of cargo to Pakistan, so imports have virtually stopped," Sahai told India Today.

"If trade doesn't resume, prices of the existing dry fruit stock will shoot (sic) and traders will have to also look for alternative sources of supply," he added.

With only the Hamid Karzai International Airport being operational in the country, and that too for evacuation efforts, land routes are the only way for goods to reach India from Afghanistan. The imports have to come through transit routes located in Pakistan but the group had closed down all outgoing trucks and routes.

India imports dried raisins, walnuts, almonds, figs, pine nuts, pistachios, dried apricots, cherries, watermelons, and medicinal herbs from Afghanistan in huge quantities.

India’s import bill for these items alone stood at Rs 2,389.86 crore in the financial year 2020-2021. The total import expenditure of India with Afghanistan stood at Rs 3,753.47 crore.

As the festive season approaches, demand will possibly outstrip supply, leading to multi-fold increase in prices.

Reports indicate that prices of almonds, walnuts, and apricots from Afghanistan have more than tripled in the last few days. The prices have been steadily increasing since the Taliban launched their offensive in May. Traders have reported a 20 percent increase in prices since.

Indo Foreign Chamber of Commerce President B.K. Bajaj, however, said such increases were expected as dry fruits were luxury items. Many traders do expect the increase in prices to be transient, though the disruption can mean higher prices for a longer time.

On whether prices could go up by 10-20 percent in the coming days, Sahai told ANI, “I will say that (the crisis) may not directly impact the prices, but the very fact that one of the sources of import no longer exists, speculation of increase in prices cannot be ruled out."

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Meanwhile, trade is already resuming, with Reuters reporting that trucks are already beginning to cross the border.

"Today, many trucks loaded with fresh fruit (from Afghanistan), including famous 'Sunder-Khani' grapes, were cleared at Customs House Chaman," a senior custom officer told Reuters.