With hours to go before the voting ends in the US, the Democratic Party’s nominee Joe Biden is leading his Republican counterpart, President Donald Trump, in the national opinion polls as well as in many key battleground states, though the battle may be close in the latter.
A wide swathe of pollsters has forecast a significant lead for Biden in terms of vote share. Even after accounting for margin of error, the consensus is Biden has greater chances of reaching the magical 270 Electoral College seats required to become President.
Here is what the latest polls are saying.
| Poll | Date | Donald Trump | Joe Biden | Margin of Error | Lead |
| YouGov/Economist | Oct 31 – Nov 2 | 43% | 53% | -- | 10% |
| CNN/SSRS | Oct 23–26 | 42% | 54% | ± 3.8% | 12% |
| Morning Consult | Oct 27–29 | 43% | 52% | ± 1% | 9% |
| FiveThirtyEight | Nov 2, 2020 | 43.40% | 51.80% | -- | - |
| RealClearPolitics | Oct 15 – Nov 1, 2020 | 43.20% | 50.40% | -- | - |
| Fox News | Oct 27–29 | 52% | 44% | ± 2.5% | 8% |
| Reuters | Oct 31 – Nov 2 | 45% | 52% | ± 3.7% | 7% |
| NBC/WSJ | Oct 29–31 | 42% | 52% | ± 3.4% | 10% |
| ABC/Washington Post | Oct 6–9 | 42% | 54% | ± 4% | 12% |
| YouGov/Yahoo News | Oct 30 – Nov 1 | 43% | 53% | -- | 10% |
Source: Wikipedia
It is important to note that while most polls forecast a wide lead for Biden, the Presidential race in the US boils down to a handful of swing states, which are key to deciding the eventual outcome.
And there is evidence that the battle in some of the battleground states is close. For instance, while most pollsters see Biden in the lead in the key swing states, Trafalgar Group said Trump is leading Biden in many swing states like Florida, Pennsylvania, Michigan, North Carolina and Arizona. The Atlanta-based pollster had accurately predicted Trump’s victory in 2016.
Besides, winning the popular vote does not necessarily translate into higher seats in the US Electoral College college system.
Finally, there is the website FiveThirtyEight, which also puts out its odds, and said there is 90 percent chance Biden will win.
Around this time in 2016, FiveThirtyEight said Hillary Clinton had a 71.4 percent chance of winning the election -- the forecast earned a fair bit of rebuke for the website founder and leading statistician Nate Silver who made a name for accurately predicting elections.
But as Silver says, a higher chance is not the same thing as a sureshot victory. Basically, if Trump has a narrower path to victory compared to Biden, he could still walk it if the factors work in his favour.
First Published: Nov 3, 2020 5:57 PM IST
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