London Eye: Rishi Sunak sets out bravely uphill

One way or another — or one way and another — some grassroots irritation is emerging already against both candidates looking to replace him. Against Truss for staying loyal to him through all his publicly dubious record, against Sunak similarly for sticking too long with Boris. But also against Truss for refusing to declare Boris an honest man despite his support for her, and against Sunak for bringing Johnson down. Westminster politics has a way of making opposites all true.

The odds against Rishi Sunak as declared by some are high enough through this shifting mess. By one poll, 68 to 32. Away from any close estimates, Rishi Sunak has acknowledged at the start of his campaign that he starts second. But it’s not just MPs who shift with ease. Members' views could change through the weeks of campaigning ahead, and it is certainly Rishi’s aim to seek to shift them.

Rishi’s aim is to seek to erase prejudice with argument. The prejudice is obvious. Within the Conservative Party, it comes as a flood. The first choice, crudely put is between a candidate who is blonde and white, and the other who looks Indian, has an Indian name, and a wife who is an Indian citizen. For many, and it will be Rishi’s hope that it will not be too many, the point of choice begins and ends there.

No one says it in so many words. But it is also quintessentially British to be driven by crude prejudice and then dress it up with talk that appears reasonable and even evolved. The confrontation between the two candidates offers a ready dressing to hand.

Liz Truss has offered to cut taxes, to the extent of as much as 30 billion pounds if she were to be elected. The argument rides the cliché that high taxation would cut economic growth. That cliché does ride a truth often. Rishi Sunak’s argument is that it cannot when the country is fighting serious inflation. It’s easy, he says, to say "lovely things" and to offer "fairy tales" — but it is dishonest. Sunak is against any tax cuts until at least a year from now.

Truss has taken the populist route to winning a poll, and of course, there will be takers for a policy that the party can then offer the people to win them over for the next election due 2024. But the two candidates are due to debate this out in public, with the first debate on BBC on Monday. Sunak’s hope is that he can offer the better argument that is so much better that those building the gap to the advantage of Truss will be won over. More than half of about 160,000 to 200,000 voting Tories will have to buy Rishi’s argument. To his advantage, it is a sound argument, he can offer it forcefully, and he has the credentials as former chancellor of the exchequer to back it with credibility.

If Sunak can carry this through, the world will be looking at nothing less than a historic miracle.