London Eye | Britain inching back from Brexit

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak worded that compromise carefully in his first major speech on foreign policy at the City of London (the financial centre of London) annual reception in London Monday evening. He would, he said, "Never align with EU law." But instead, "We’ll foster respectful, mature relationships with our European neighbours on shared issues such as energy and illegal migration to strengthen our resilience against strategic vulnerabilities."

This is a step back in tone already from the anti-EU rhetoric paraded by Brexiteers in a show of freedom from what they projected as near or neo-colonisation of Britain by the EU. Further gradation in setbacks from confrontation with the EU are expected in the full integrated review of Britain’s foreign policy due next year.

That Brexit is failing is now abundantly clear, even if not clear from political leaders' statements – a determination to cling to Brexit is one of few issues that Prime Minister Sunak and Labour leader Keir Starmer appear to agree on. The promised substitute trade deal with the US is not even being negotiated anymore. The one with India is being renegotiated, and when in place is likely to bring small gains rather than a big bang of exploding trade. Certainly, nothing to replace trade benefits with the EU.

None other than Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey told MPs last week that Britain is doing badly economically compared to its rivals because Brexit had brought a sharp drop in its workforce. Among developed nations as they are called, Britain is the only one to have slipped into recession following the end of the lockdown – all others have recorded growth. "I'm afraid it’s not a good story," Bailey said.

The Eurozone has recorded a 2.1 percent growth relative to pre-pandemic levels, and the US has as much as 4.2 percent. Britain stands at minus 0.7 percent. Much of that responsibility ought to rest with Rishi Sunak, a strong Brexit champion, who was Chancellor of the Exchequer (finance minister) through the lockdown period and after. Sunak repeats the claim often that he introduced the furlough scheme. But so did other developed countries. He usually fails to mention that it is policies he has promoted that have brought Britain to its present low.

And won't be for some time. The Bank of England has predicted that the recession could last up to two years. And given inflation running above 11 percent – and rising – and rising interest rates in an attempt to limit inflation, real income levels are projected to come down an estimated six percent over the next couple of years. Workers are launching strikes everywhere for more pay – nurses, transport workers, post office staff, and teachers. And there is a reluctance to pay them the more they demand in fear that this would only fuel inflation further.

It was a delicate balance running for the economy before Brexit; it always is everywhere. The shock of departure from the EU has hurt the balance hugely. EU workers have left en masse, a few sops offered to lure some back have been well short of inviting. Trading now attracts duties and delays. And every delay and disruption brings knock-on effects. Lorry drivers are being paid close to twice as much as before Brexit in the absence of EU drivers. That too adds to costs and inflation, as does every factor along the way.

Signs of attempting a subtle retreat from Brexit are beginning to emerge. Step back Britain must if it is to save itself from yet greater damage from its decision and from the rhetoric that seeks to justify that decision. A perpetuation is set to become yet more damaging, a substitution of EU, from the US, India, from Japan or Australia, or even the lot together promises at most very little. The challenge for the government now is to look for a retreat that does not appear like a retreat.

It will not be easy. The EU is not about to deliver to the British trade benefits that disregard EU laws, even if that is what the British would want. The furlough is now forgotten, despite Sunak’s anxious repetitions of it. It’s his Brexit policy that lies in wait to trip him, unless he manages to step back from at least aspects of it.