A report published in 2022 by researchers at the American Geophysical Union (AGU) suggests that by 2075, the African continent will be able to produce enough food to feed only about 1.35 billion people — at a time when the continent’s population is expected to surpass 3 billion.
Also, a 2014 publication in the United Nations’ Africa Renewal magazine indicated similar trends, suggesting that the continent would only be able to produce about 13 percent of its food needs by 2050, if the fragilities associated with food systems were to persist. Today, over 250 million people across the continent face hunger, on account of persistent food insecurity which is further exacerbated by multiple factors including climate incidents.
In addition, structural transformation needs to be catalysed through a focus on agro-industrialisation, transitioning broader food systems towards those that are more industrialised and consolidated. This transition is characterised by the consolidation of value chains through a focus on creating larger-scale and more input-intensive farms, modern processing facilities with best-in-class infrastructure and formalisation of food markets, thus allowing the workforce to transition to higher reward sectors.
Today, while over 50 percent of the African workforce is directly employed in agriculture, about 70 percent of the population directly or indirectly relies on it. While nations across Africa have made considerable progress over recent decades in improving the performance of their agri-sectors, the risk of population growth outpacing progress continues to prevail.
The continent imports over 80 percent of its food, with the annual import bill expected to surpass USD 100 billion, post 2025 as per the World Bank. Moreover, about 60 percent of farmers on the continent are subsistence smallholders, i.e., they cultivate solely for personal consumption and have almost no access to finance and other key inputs like fertilisers. As a result, agricultural yield levels in Africa are amongst the lowest in the world and have a trickling effect on poverty and nutrition.
These trends persist despite the continent’s immense agricultural potential. Africa has over 65 percent of the world’s remaining uncultivated arable land, plentiful freshwater to meet agricultural needs, over 300 days of rich sunshine each year, and a landscape gifted with abundantly fertile soil.
In 2003, the AU and New Partnership for Africa’s Development (NEPAD) founded the Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme (CAADP), setting targets to transform the agriculture and food systems value chain through dedicated focus and public investment. These commitments were further strengthened through the 2014 Malabo declaration — all steps in the right direction. With the right support and focus, the continent has the potential to not only adequately feed itself but become the ‘breadbasket of the world.’
Today, Africa is where many developed economies were about 50 years ago — with average cereal yield levels below 2 tons per hectare and a high proportion of population engaged in agriculture. Currently, developed nations such as the United States and across Europe, have yield levels in the range of 6-9 tons per hectare, while the global average stands at around 4 tonnes. This indicates that Africa has much potential to transform its agricultural systems through focusing on improving productivity, without compromising on the environment by having to convert natural wildlife habitats into agricultural land.
However, with the 2030 target for achievement of the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) approaching, acceleration of growth and change has become crucial. Fortunately, the world today has the benefit of unprecedented innovation, with modern technologies available across sectors and use cases.
Africa can leverage its growing visibility on forums of global governance like the G20 to highlight the need and benefits of initiatives like technology transfer programmes — bringing global innovation to the continent. Private greenfield investment in the sector needs to be catalysed, enabling High Yield, Resilient & Adaptive Practices (HYRAP), mechanisation, and tech-driven solutions to penetrate traditional agricultural practices. Structural transformation needs to be catalysed through a focus on agro-industrialisation, transitioning broader food systems towards the ‘industrialised and consolidated’ archetype.
This transition is characterised by the consolidation of value chains through a focus on creating large-scale and input-intensive farms, enabling modern processing facilities with best-in-class infrastructure and formalisation of food markets ultimately facilitating direct access to global value chains and international markets.
Lastly, African nations need to hold themselves true to agreed CAADP spending targets, at 10 percent of all public expenditure — with an adequate split between investment expenditure (such as on storage and irrigation infrastructure) and recurring expenses (primarily subsidies). This will not only help bridge the investment gap but will also help attract private, philanthropic, and development capital from across the world into agriculture initiatives through innovative financing means such as blended finance and low-cost capital.
India’s 2023 G20 Presidency has also marked the first edition of a dedicated action council on African Economic Integration within the B20 engagement group. Driven by the in depth on-ground understanding and expertise of business leaders across Africa and beyond, the Action Council aims to make practical and actionable recommendations to the G20 leaders across identified areas of priority for the continent.
The forum has identified agriculture as one of the top priorities for addressal and its recommendations would go a long way in bringing global finance and best practices to Africa across sectors, especially agriculture. In the fertile fields of Africa, the seeds of agricultural prosperity are sown to cultivate not just sustenance, but economic empowerment for the continent's future.
—The authors,Tolu Oyekan, Zoe Karl-Waithaka and Chris Mitchell, are Managing Directors and Partners at BCG Africa. The views expressed in the article are their personal.
(Edited by : C H Unnikrishnan)
First Published: Aug 23, 2023 10:35 AM IST
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