The end of the forever Afghan War

The decision to quit Afghanistan cannot escape from criticism either way. Within the United States, lawmakers and intelligence officials have argued that withdrawal would likely mean that the Taliban would come back in power and take over the Afghan government. Indeed, the Taliban has received the news of the September withdrawal as a sign that they have won the war. If a transition government is to be set up, it is likely that

Several countries, including Pakistan, India, China, Russia, and Iran as Afghanistan’s immediate neighbours, will be closely invested in the US withdrawal. China, for instance, released a statement, “saying Washington should accommodate legitimate security concerns of the regional countries to prevent "terrorist forces” from taking advantage of the chaos in the war-torn country.”

The Chinese border state of Xinjiang, a source of human rights contention (particularly in the last two months with the ban of Xinjiang cotton), is home to Uyghur Muslims who, the CCP fears, maybe radicalised by extremists from the Middle East. Therefore, Beijing sees building relations with both the Taliban and the Afghan government as an integral part of their strategy to ensure stability in Xinjiang. It has mediated between Pakistan and Afghanistan and even invests heavily in Afghanistan’s development.

Like China, the Indian government is worried about peace in the region after the US withdrawal. India’s position consistently has been that any peace process should be Afghan-led, Afghan-owned, and Afghan-controlled. It is particularly worried about the increase in terrorist activities in the Kashmir region. India takes a different approach to deal with the situation, though—it openly backed the Northern Alliance and the moderate Afghan government currently in power. India has also been a considerable investor in Afghanistan, built the parliament in Kabul, and offers scholarships and technical assistance to Afghani people.

Afghanistan even emerged as one of the fronts where India and China could cooperate during the first informal summit back in 2018. The Wuhan summit explored the possibility of conducting joint training for officials, which was then carried out a year later. Could this cooperation deepen once the US withdraws? Or will India and China continue to find more differences than similarities in their neighbourhood, particularly with Pakistan's involvement? Since the US is intent on redirecting the troops from Afghanistan to the Asia-Pacific, what does that mean for competition between China and the US? None of these questions has clear answers though, we will see some indications before the year is up.

—Hamsini Hariharan is the host of the States of Anarchy podcast. She researches Chinese politics and policy. The views expressed are personal