Exit polls for the three north-eastern states that have gone to polls -- Tripura, Nagaland and Meghalaya -- have come as a shot in the arm for the BJP, with the party slated to win Tripura and also Nagaland. In Nagaland, the BJP is in alliance with the NDPP.
Interestingly, the exit polls also suggest that the woes of the Congress aren't over just yet. After having lost Gujarat by a huge margin months ago, the party is expected to perform poorly in both Tripura and Nagaland as well.
Also Read: Here's why Meghalaya looks unpredictable while Nagaland and Tripura comes a sure shot for BJP
The India Today- Axis My India exit poll says that the BJP will win 36-45 seats in Tripura, which has 60 seats. While, it gives the NDPP and BJP 38-48 seats in Nagaland.
The Zee Matrize exit poll shows a keener contest in Meghalaya. Also, as per this poll, the BJP isn't fully dominating Tripura too. However, both polls see a clear BJP alliance victory in Nagaland.
In Tripura -- which has a large proportion of Bengali migrant Hindus, something often disliked by the tribes there -- a win for the BJP will be a setback not just to the Congress but also the CPI (M), which electorally dominated the state till five years ago.
However, as per the detailed pre-poll survey of political scientist Sajjan Kumar's PRACCIS -- which also predicts a BJP victory in the state -- the CPI (M) seems to have acquired the image of a Bengali-centric entity in Tripura.
Most tribal respondents told PRACCIS that a return of CPI (M) will lead to a rise in ethnic tensions and a pro-Bengali approach. The last assembly polls in Tripura had seen several incidents of ethnic violence, in which a journalist was also killed. If the exit polls are true, the CPI (M) is headed the Bengal way even in Tripura.
A significant development in Tripura seems to be the rise of Tipra Motha, a tribal party formed by former Congress leader and scion of the royal family Pradyot Bikram Manikya Debbarma, in tribal-heavy constituencies.
As per the India Today-Axis My India Exit Poll, Tipra Motha is expected to win 9-16 seats in Tripura and will push the Left-Congress alliance, which is likely to win 6-11 seats, to the third place.
—The author, Vikas Pathak, is a political columnist who teaches at Asian College of Journalism, Chennai. The views expressed are personal.
Read his previous articles here
(Edited by : C H Unnikrishnan)
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