Going back to business in a post COVID-19 world

1. Customers switch to Digital life — from work meetings to virtual concerts, online financial transactions to e-commerce, online education degrees to virtual marriages — these will be mainstream.

2. Masks could become part of the dress code. Health records and mandatory testing could be a resort by governments to protect people.

3. Self-service — People are learning to do things by themselves — haircuts, beauty regimes are soaring search charts — the scope of services people learn will only increase.

4. Digital fraud will replace physical security as the largest threat.

On the healthcare industry — one facet that came to light during this pandemic is the unpreparedness of the healthcare system to deal with large scale diseases. Till the time we have a cure for COVID, a robust healthcare system, apart from hospitals, equipment, medical supplies and manpower, should have the capabilities for testing, tracking and cordoning citizens effectively.

For healthcare supplies — medicines, equipment, chemicals and surgicals, India still depends on imports. The future of global supply chains is uncertain. Spanish flu, the last pandemic lasted 3 waves over 2 years. Governments will be stronger and nationalism will rise with borders being sealed. It is expected that there will be a push for domestic production and self-sufficiency.

Specifically to e-Health, as we try to bring demand-supply together, newer avenues of cross co-opetition have opened up, where businesses are able to put aside the thoughts of being competitors and come together to serve people in this hour of need. This is a time for collaboration and partnerships. It is likely that there will be a wave of consolidation — every economic stress in the past has shown us that up to 30 percent of the entities will go away.

Yet there are some constants in business that will always count. Your business reputation matters. How you stay relevant and are seen as being responsible and empathetic organisations will form public views for the future. Second, your customer base. They are valuable and how you manage escalations that now have a digital outlet that can quickly scale up will test your ability to command loyalty post lockdown.

The third is your organisation people and capabilities. Capabilities of the past were ok for businesses to run the way they were. The future requires a different set of competencies. Execution will be decentralised — delegation with accountability will ensure success. Make sure your people reskill fast, are ready and recommit to your company. Lastly, the networks — use the ecosystem and be more connected than ever.

The next 12 months will be a recessionary economy. Oil prices are at a record low of $16/ barrel. IMF has predicted a GDP decline for the world in 2020 with India pegged at +1-2 percent growth. Unemployment stats are quickly rising around the world & we are seeing some of the largest stimulus packages being announced by governments. Countries with per head incomes of less than $2 per day will have raging debates on lives vs livelihood. SMEs that contribute to 50 percent of the workforce will struggle for access to capital and it is expected that there will be shutdowns.

There is a psychological impact of this pandemic that is too large to ignore. There are no more guarantees or entitlement. Saving as much as you can & providing for your families will be the mood for the coming year & businesses will have to weave into this thought stream. But despite the glum scenario, I am positive that there will be a resurgence — just like how we had the boom in the 1960s or the recovery after the financial crisis last decade. The spirit of innovation will lead to recovery across the world. It will be a new world, but a prosperous, healthy & happy one to look forward to.