It has been over two years since the end of the armed conflict between the Taliban and Afghan Defence Forces and the former’s takeover of Afghanistan. The shift in the Afghan regime has led to systematic challenges to government institutions, which are evident in other countries too. Recently, the Afghan Embassy in New Delhi announced its closure. However, just days after the announcement, the Afghan Consul Generals of Hyderabad and Mumbai declared the assumption of leadership at the embassy. The transition at the Afghan embassy in the capital has raised concerns over India-Afghanistan ties, revealing the strenuous nature of the relationship amidst high economic volatility in the country.
Rising unemployment and economic vulnerability
Afghanistan has been suffering from a massive humanitarian conflict since the onset of the de facto regime. According to the latest UN report by Special Rapporteur Richard Bennett, the Taliban’s rules have severely deteriorated the education and employment of women in the country. Since June 2023, several rules like the ban on women’s beauty salons and services and the dismissal of teachers from schools, have left around 64,000 women unemployed. The report also highlights that the education of nearly 3 lakh girls has been stalled due to the coronavirus pandemic and the subsequent takeover of the Taliban in 2021.
Depleting economic opportunities have also led to increased child labour in Afghanistan. According to data from Save The Children, a UK-based non-governmental organisation, one-third of children in the country are pushed into child labour as families in Afghanistan struggle to make ends meet. Similarly, the UN report reflects that increased child labour is a result of excluding women from the workforce as they are substituted by children.
Lack of employment opportunities has also pushed almost half the population into poverty, as per the World Bank’s Afghanistan Welfare Monitoring Survey. Another estimate from the UN Development Programme suggests that if women are prevented from formal employment, then the per capita income in Afghanistan will be nearly reduced by half.
Decreasing international aid
The shocks of the Taliban’s rule, coupled with deficient funding, have hindered assistance to the Afghani people. Humanitarian relief operations in Afghanistan are facing deep funding gaps of $1.8 billion, according to the UN’s Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA). The data indicates that funding has sharply plunged from meeting 97% of requirements in 2021 to fulfilling only 44% of needs in 2023.
In terms of country-wise spending on the response plan, the US remains the top donor for 2023, contributing 23.1% of the overall plan against 37% a year ago. This is followed by 13.8% in funding from the Asian Development Bank and 10% from the European Union’s Humanitarian Aid Department.
Poverty and strained income opportunities have also pushed the people of Afghanistan into acute food insecurity. A major chunk of earnings in Afghan households is, as a result, being used for food. However, the World Food Programme, which is working towards assisting in fighting malnutrition and hunger in Afghanistan, has also reported funding cuts impacting its measures drastically in the country.
Increasing diplomatic tensions
While the international community couldn’t prevent the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan, several countries globally have seen risks to diplomatic representation at Afghan embassies. In December 2023, the Afghan embassy in New Delhi released a letter announcing permanent closure. However, just days following the release of the statement, reports of Afghan diplomats from two other cities assuming the New Delhi office began floating.
External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar, in a parliamentary response on December 12, also hinted at the change in leadership and subsequent assumption by other Afghan diplomats of the embassy in question. He further stated that the diplomatic presence of Afghanistan continues to function in New Delhi, Mumbai, and Hyderabad.
Despite the presence of Afghan diplomats in India, the sudden change in official representatives of Afghanistan in the national capital has sparked concerns.
Speaking on the diplomatic shift at the embassy, Qadeer Mutfi, Fellow Researcher at the Afghan Institute for Strategic Studies, said, “Embassies need a lot of mobilisation and communication between the host country and diplomats. But they (diplomats) were not getting answers from the Indian External Affairs ministry. There was no support.”
He added that since the collapse of the government regime in Afghanistan, there has been a lot of confusion in Afghan public institutions with visible efforts to engage with the Taliban from India. However, it is not just India that is maintaining an engagement strategy with the Taliban, global agencies like the UN have called for greater dialogue with the Taliban.
Addressing a UN Security Council meeting recently, Roza Isakovna Otunbayeva, Special Representative of the Secretary-General for Afghanistan, said, “Dialogue doesn’t legitimise but it encourages change.” Adding that some UN agencies have been able to follow successful interactions with the de facto regime in Kabul on issues of climate, macro-finance, counter-narcotics, and even human rights, and also said that compromises will need to be made from all sides.
Barriers to trade
Afghanistan’s trade equation with its neighbours also remains turbulent since the beginning of the conflict. According to the World Bank’s latest data, Afghanistan’s coal exports dropped 43% from January to October 2023. For the same period, food exports to India from Afghanistan increased by 49%. Similarly, trade with Pakistan also improved in October 2023, largely led by food and coal exports. However, an analysis of the Ministry of Commerce’s trade data suggests that India’s exports to Afghanistan have consistently declined from around $998 million in 2019–20 to $437 million in 2022–23.
Apart from food exports, Afghanistan is also rich in rare earth minerals like lithium. According to the country’s data, Afghanistan holds over $1 trillion worth of mineral resources, making it an attractive investment opportunity.
However, countries like China are already banking on Afghanistan’s untapped natural resources. Emphasising the need for greater focus on improving trade between India and Afghanistan, Mufti, who is also a former advisor at the Ministry of Mines & Petroleum-Afghanistan, said, ”During initial investments in Afghanistan’s huge natural resources, China signed mining contracts with the country, but India didn’t come to join the mining contracts. There’s huge trade potential between trade in India and Afghanistan, but New Delhi is not able to harness that potential in Kabul.”
Sectors like education and health services also constitute a major factor in the existing relationship between India and Afghanistan, which has been adversely impacted by visa restrictions and advisories.
While India has maintained its 'neighborhood-first policy' with Afghanistan, the Taliban’s rule has proven detrimental. Afghanistan now finds itself at a critical juncture, grappling with the multifaceted challenges of diplomatic tensions, economic struggles, and humanitarian crises. The shift in the Afghan regime has cast a shadow over international relations, particularly with India, as evident from the recent diplomatic shifts at the Afghan embassy in New Delhi. International collaboration, therefore, becomes paramount as the resilience of Afghan people offers hope in this complex and dynamic landscape.
(Edited by : Ajay Vaishnav)
Check out our in-depth Market Coverage, Business News & get real-time Stock Market Updates on CNBC-TV18. Also, Watch our channels CNBC-TV18, CNBC Awaaz and CNBC Bajar Live on-the-go!
Punjab Lok Sabha elections: Check full list of AAP candidates and constituencies
May 18, 2024 12:59 PM
PM Modi, Rahul Gandhi election rallies in Delhi today: Here are the routes to avoid
May 18, 2024 11:28 AM