The iPhone 16, expected to launch later this year, will not have any major design upgrades, according to Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo.
He also suggests that the “more comprehensive/differentiated GenAI ecosystem/applications” will be seen in iPhones by 2025 at the earliest, which is also likely to harm Apple’s iPhone shipment momentum and ecosystem growth.
This could also be the year the company shifts its focus to the upcoming Vision Pro and wearables. One significant hardware change rumoured for the iPhone 16 series is the inclusion of a "capture" button for camera-related actions. According to rumours, the button would detect pressure and touch. For example, according to the source, users will be able to zoom in and out of the Camera app by swiping left and right on the button, focus with a gentle push, and begin a video recording with a stronger press.
In terms of design, the iPhone 16 series is expected to receive bigger screen sizes for the Pro models — 6.3-inch and 6.9-inch for the iPhone 16 Pro and the iPhone 16 Pro Max respectively, compared to 6.1-inch and 6.7-inch displays in previous models.
According to Kuo, Apple has lowered its 2024 iPhone shipments to about 200 million units, which is a 15% drop compared to last year. “The iPhone 15 series and new iPhone 16 series shipments will decline by 10–15% YoY in 1H24 and 2H24, respectively (compared to iPhone 14 series shipments in 1H23 and iPhone 15 series shipments in 2H23, respectively),” he added.
One of the major challenges that the iPhones face is the emergence of GenAI smartphones and foldable phones — neither of which Apple makes at the time. The declining sales in China and the return of Huawei are also growing concerns for the Cupertino-based tech giant.
Kuo said that Apple’s weekly shipments in China — one of the biggest markets for the iPhone maker — have declined by 30-40% as compared to last year in recent weeks, and this trend is expected to continue.
“The main reason for the decline is the return of Huawei and the fact that foldable phones have gradually become the first choice for high-end users in the Chinese market,” Kuo added.
Contrary to Apple, Samsung has increased the shipment of their Galaxy S24 series this year by 5 to 10% in the first half of 2024.
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