To part or to stay: Annamalai risks AIADMK alliance, puts BJP’s Tamil Nadu prospects in a bind

AIADMK leaders have accused Annamalai of deliberately undermining the alliance's success and even accused him of obstructing the re-election of Prime Minister Narendra Modi of the BJP.

"Instead of criticising the common and permanent enemy, the DMK (Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam), Annamalai has criticised our leader who has passed away...Annamalai has made every AIADMK cadre furious today," said former state minister and AIADMK spokesperson D Jayakumar.

"Annamalai’s actions appear like he doesn’t want the alliance between the BJP and the AIADMK to continue and, at the same time, he doesn’t want Narendra Modi to become the Prime Minister again. Annamalai’s intention is that the BJP-AIADMK alliance shouldn’t win parliamentary seats in Tamil Nadu so that Modi doesn’t become the Prime Minister.”

Jayakumar further asked whether the BJP won in "Karnataka despite his election campaign in that state". "Why doesn’t he talk about the corruption allegations in Karnataka during the Assembly election,” he added.

The party has demanded that Annamalai be reined in. It also passed a resolution, which former CM and AIADMK general secretary Edappadi K Palaniswami read out, "The interview given by Annamalai against our leader Jayalalithaa was made with an ulterior motive. It has hurt the sentiments of party cadres and we strongly condemn it."

Prominent ousted AIADMK leader O Panneerselvam and AMMK chief TTV Dhinakaran, too, joined the chorus of criticism, labelling Annamalai as "immature" and lacking an understanding of state politics.

The AIADMK's response reflects the deep resentment within the party. Their denunciation further weakens Annamalai's position and indicates the existence of deep divisions within the Tamil Nadu political landscape.

This public confrontation poses a significant challenge to the unity and stability of the BJP-AIADMK alliance.

Even though Annamalai attempted to downplay the controversy, he emphasised his commitment to pursuing his own policies.

“I don't want to mortgage my dream policies for the future of Tamil Nadu. I don't need anyone to tell me how to lead an alliance party and alliance leaders. Just because we're in an alliance, we can't say everything the alliance wants,” he said, according to a report in the Tamil daily Dinamani.

However, this response does little to address the concerns raised by AIADMK and others, highlighting a significant discord between Annamalai's stance and that of his alliance partners.

The BJP's alliance with the AIADMK is further complicated by Annamalai's continuous attacks on the DMK government over corruption allegations.

His persistent criticism of the ruling party demonstrates a willingness to challenge and confront established political forces in the state. While this may appeal to certain sections of the electorate, it has also strained the relationship with AIADMK leaders, who themselves have faced corruption allegations.

Annamalai's discontent with the AIADMK is not solely rooted in corruption issues but also extends to the poaching of BJP leaders by the AIADMK. The defection of several BJP members to the AIADMK has irked Annamalai, further fueling his belief that the BJP can succeed independently in Tamil Nadu.

The state BJP's support for Annamalai's stance adds another layer of complexity to the situation. The party's backing of Annamalai's padayatra, a foot march covering all 234 assembly constituencies in Tamil Nadu, suggests a tacit endorsement of his independent aspirations.

However, AIADMK's Jayakumar said that the BJP's success in the 2021 assembly election was due to the alliance with AIADMK, emphasising the importance of their partnership and questioning whether Annamalai can deny this fact.

These developments raise the question on whether the BJP, led by K Annamalai, can withdraw from its alliance with AIADMK and achieve a majority of seats independently in Lok Sabha and assembly polls in Tamil Nadu. While Annamalai's confidence in the BJP's prospects may be fuelled by his grassroots support and the party's growing presence in the state, it is essential to consider the political landscape and the challenges the BJP faces.

Tamil Nadu has historically been dominated by two major Dravidian parties, DMK and AIADMK, with the BJP, and its bete noire Congress, playing a relatively minor role since 1967 when DMK stormed to power and Tamil Nadu has not looked back at a national party.

If going alone, the BJP will have to contend with the strong existing political dynamics and the established voter base of the AIADMK and the DMK. These parties have deep-rooted support networks, cadre mobilisation capabilities, and a long-standing history in Tamil Nadu politics, making them formidable opponents. No other party, even regional parties based in Tamil Nadu, have achieved the massive success levels seen by these two parties.

Additionally, Tamil Nadu has a history of voting on regional and identity-based lines, with Dravidian politics deeply ingrained in the state's consciousness. The BJP, as a national party with a different ideological and cultural background — that is prominently perceived as strongly north Indian, Hindutva- and Hindi-imposing — may face strong resistance in appealing to the sentiments and aspirations of Tamil voters.

However, the party’s recent entry into the state assembly with four MLAs is indeed noteworthy, but it is primarily attributed to the alliance with the AIADMK, as highlighted by AIADMK leader Jayakumar. This indicates that the BJP's identity and electoral success in Tamil Nadu has been intertwined with its alliance partners, as has been the fate of the Congress.

Furthermore, the recent controversy surrounding Annamalai's comments and the backlash from the AIADMK and other parties indicate the potential backlash and negative perception the BJP may face if it were to sever ties with its alliance partner.

There is also a strong sentiment attached to political leaders of Tamil Nadu, and the targeted attacks may sway people away from the saffron party.

Public sentiment can play a crucial role in electoral outcomes, and any damage to the BJP's image resulting from the fallout of the alliance could impact its chances of winning majority seats.

While Annamalai has garnered attention and support from certain sections of the electorate with his anti-corruption stance and direct attacks on rival parties, his appeal may not necessarily translate into a sweeping electoral victory for the BJP. Tamil Nadu's electoral landscape is complex, and winning a majority of seats alone would require a significant shift in the political dynamics and voter preferences.