The popularity the BJP had seen in 2022 when it won 32 seats in the 60-member assembly has been sliding after ethnic violence between Meitei and Kuki communities broke out in the state on May 3 last year, leading to the death of over 200 people.
As the strife hit national headlines, especially after a video of two women being paraded naked surfaced, the BJP-led government at the Centre have taken several measures seeking to bring back people’s confidence in the administration.
The Centre has announced erecting fencing on the Indo-Myanmar border and cancellation of the Free Movement Regime (FMR) to address the issue of illegal immigration from the neighbouring country.
The steps may have some positive electoral effects for the BJP in the Inner Manipur Lok Sabha constituency comprising assembly segments of the Imphal valley.
These measures are likely to adversely affect the saffron camp in the other seat of the northeastern state, Outer Manipur, which covers the hill districts, home to Naga and Kuki community people who are against those moves by the BJP government.
The opposition Congress, which lost power in the state in 2017, is also not on a strong pitch as it has been plagued with internal bickering over selection of party candidates. Rajiv Gandhi’s visit after the ethnic strife began, however, might help the party in the elections.
Inner and Outer Manipur seats are held by the BJP and Naga People’s Front (NPF) respectively.
The elections will be held in the state in two phases on April 19 and 26.
Following is a SWOT (Strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, threats) analysis of the BJP and Congress in the state.
Strengths
*Cancellation of FMR and announcement for erecting border Fencing by the BJP government are points to appeal to the voters of Inner Manipur seat.
*Distribution of monetary compensation for more than 3000 farmers affected by violence both in the hills and valley districts will help the BJP.
*The government’s “inability” to protect lives and properties of the people is likely to help the Congress.
*Congress will also highlight Rahul Gandhi’s two-day visit to the state weeks after the violence broke out. He also began his Bharat Jodo Nyay Yatra from the state this year.
Weakness
*BJP MP faced criticism from different quarters for not being vocal in Parliament and at the national level over the violence in the state.
*The BJP government’s inability to establish permanent peace even though 10 months have passed after the violence began.
*The Suspension of Operations agreement with Kuki militant organizations was signed in 2008 when Congress ruled the state. A section of the people wants the pact to be discontinued.
*The Congress is facing allegations that it did not effectively tackle the border issues as the BJP has claimed illegal immigration from Myanmar is the root cause of the ethnic violence.
Opportunities
*BJP's opportunity is the absence of a strong and popular candidate in Congress.
*Congress will highlight the inability of the BJP to protect people’s lives and property during the ethnic strife.
Threats
*Any fresh violence or steps taken against village volunteers by security forces would hit the BJP hard.
*Infighting in the Congress about the selection of candidates.
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