Rajasthan Lok Sabha polls 2019: BJP bets on Modi charisma to take on resurgent Congress in desert state

Going by the 2018 Rajasthan assembly elections results, the party should ideally evenly share the state's 25 Lok Sabha seats with the BJP. But, that's easier said than done especially as electoral stakes now involve the question of Narendra Modi's bid for the second term as Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister’s popularity in the state remains high as captured during an often repeated slogan during the assembly elections in December: “Modi tujhse vair nahin, Vasundhara teri khair nahin.”

The BJP will try to make the most from PM Modi’s popularity particularly after the Balakot terror strike and his government’s tough stance against terrorism and on national security issues. The Congress campaign will continue to focus farm loan waiver, joblessness, secularism, demonetisation, GST and alleged corruption in the purchase of French Rafale fighter jets.

On the farm distress front, the Gehlot government had announced loan waiver for farmers up to Rs 2 lakh each, on December 19, 2018, two days after being sworn in, fulfilling its assembly polls promise. BJP, however, contends that the Congress has failed to deliver on its manifesto promise of waiving entire farm loans. It further alleges that the Gehlot government has failed to implement the Swaminathan Committee recommendations on declaring minimum support price for farm produce at 1.5 times the input cost.

But BJP’s problem doesn’t just stem from the farm loan waiver issue; the Modi government's failure to tackle joblessness could haunt the party in the Lok Sabha polls. According to the National Career Service (NCS), there are 6.03 lakh registered unemployed persons in the state with Jaipur district having the highest number of them at 58,893. Congress president Rahul Gandhi has relentlessly attacked the Modi government on this front. What may come as the shot in the arm of the Congress, the Gehlot government has raised the unemployed allowance for the youth of Rajasthan to Rs 3,500 for girls and Rs 3,000 for boys.

Even as the two mainstream parties try to set the economic agenda, Rajasthan's social fabric throws up challenging caste dynamics for both the BJP and Congress. At 9 percent of the population, Jats dominate the caste matrix and have traditionally sided with the Congress. Meenas, which come under Scheduled Tribes, comprise 7 percent, Rajputs with 6 percent, Gujjars at 5 percent are other major influential castes. Rajputs have shifted their loyalty towards the BJP since Bhairon Singh Shekawat steered the party in the state. Meghwals and Malis with 6 and 4 percent share in the population are other major castes.

Congress has done better in regions dominated by Jats and Gujjars while BJP needs to retain its Rajput voter base and also woo other backward classes along with Meenas.

Rajasthan will be crucial for Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s bid for a second stint. The desert state’s 25 parliamentary constituencies will go to polls in two phases. In the fourth phase, polling will be held in Rajasthan’s 13 Lok Sabha constituencies on April 29. The rest of the 12 seats will vote on May 6, the fifth phase of General Elections 2019.