Pakistan economic and political crisis spirals on | Why the Shehbaz Sharif govt wants to delay Punjab polls

A three-member bench of the court, led by Chief Justice Umar Ata Bandial, fixed May 14 as the new date for elections to the Punjab Assembly on Tuesday. The court had then quashed the Election Commission of Pakistan's (ECP) decision to extend the polls date from April 10 to October 8.

The development came a day after the Supreme Court declared as “unconstitutional” the ECP’s earlier decision to postpone elections in Punjab, in a major blow to the federal government that has been trying to delay the election.

The Punjab assembly was dissolved on January 13 and elections are required to be held within 90 days. However, it was not possible to meet the deadline due to political wrangling and the Supreme Court allowed a short delay.

The government has cited security issues and the economic crisis for the same.

The Pakistan government had in mid-March denied offering any help with the security during elections citing the "prevalent security situation within the country and on the borders". In the past few months, the country saw several terror attacks that targeted the police in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and areas bordering Afghanistan.

Later, a huge uproar and nationwide protests over former Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan's arrest challenged Pakistan's security further. Rangers were allegedly deployed to disperse the thousands of people who had gathered outside Khan's residence, causing a major security issue in the area.

Now, the Supreme Court further demanded that the federal government must "make available all necessary personnel" - whether from the armed forces, rangers and all other forces under "the direct, indirect or ultimate command and control of the said government", as per the requirement of the ECP for security and other purposes related to the general elections.

Pakistan has been spiraling deep into an economic crisis, with the nation's finances taking a major hit in the past few months. The situation in the country has turned worse and has been affecting the poor the most. Several videos on social media show hundreds fighting for a bag of free flour provided by the government. As many as 16 people have died in such clashes so far.

While the Pakistani rupee (PKR) has plunged to 287.85 against the dollar (as of April 5), the foreign exchange reserves with the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) stood at $4.2 billion as of March 24, worth three-four weeks of import. To tackle inflation in the country, the Monetary Policy Committee decided to increase the policy rate by 100 basis points to 21 percent this week.

Amid this crisis, Pakistan's Supreme Court directed the government to release election funds worth PKR 21 billion to the ECP by April 10 for elections to the assemblies of Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Dawn reported. The court even warned that "if the funds have not been provided or there is a shortfall, as the case may be, the court may make such orders and give such directions as are deemed appropriate to such person or authority as necessary in this regard."

Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif even described the decision of the three-member Supreme Court bench to hold polls on May 14 as "a mockery of the Constitution and laws".

In an apparent bid to deviate from the SC verdict, the ruling coalition is likely to table a resolution in Pakistan Parliament to endorse the government’s stance, Dawn reported.

The government is also considered filing a reference against the three judges of the Supreme Court — Chief Justice of Pakistan (CJP) Umar Ata Bandial, Justice Ijazul Ahsan and Justice Munib Akhtar — who were part of the bench that fixed May 14 as the date for polls in Punjab.

The Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM) leaders held a meeting, chaired by Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, wherein proposals to delay the Punjab polls were discussed.

Meanwhile, Interior Minister Rana Sanaullah told Geo News "the meeting endorsed that the verdict of the three-member bench was a decision of minority judges".

This was because four judges of the Supreme Court had already given their judgement against taking suo motu notice in the case, the report said. The government had been demanding a full court to hear the case.

Amid the upheaval, PTI leader Asad Qaiser called on the government to "publicly announce its readiness to engage in negotiations with the PTI". He also expressed his party’s willingness to consider constitutional amendments for adjustments to the election schedule beyond the 90-day requirement under the law, Dawn reported.

He called for "national unity in creating an environment that was conducive to fair and transparent elections, and acceptable to all stakeholders". He said: "...we will sit and settle the matters together — this is the need of the hour that political leaders talk things out."

Pakistan needs to be politically stable in order to deal with its economic crisis which requires stringent policy decisions by lawmakers and authorities. It is believed that constant political chaos "may undermine a coherent and timely policy response."

Notably, no Pakistani PM has completed a full five-year term in office. Maintaining the record, Shehbaz Sharif took over, ousting Imran Khan in 2022. Ever since, the latter has been fighting tooth and nail to bring the Sharif government down.

Moreover, the ruling Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM) coalition fear defeat in the elections and have argued that they lost their political capital mainly because they have been trying to fix the mistakes made by the Imran Khan government, the Diplomat reported.

Now, the current government's tenure will end in August this year, enabling a special caretaker government to take charge for up to 90 days in a bid to ensure free and fair elections.

"However, the caretaker government is not empowered to sign an IMF (International Monetary Fund) pact, raising the question of whether the government and Opposition can cooperate on a joint pledge to push through any IMF demands in order to avert a default," Reuters reported. Pakistan and the IMF are currently negotiating a bailout deal worth $1.1 billion.

Experts believe that different political parties must solve the problem together rather than changing the government altogether. They also argue that "Pakistan has leadership issues".

Amir Jahangir, Chief Executive Officer at Mishal Pakistan, told Moneycontrol that "there's no Opposition in the Pakistan assembly and therefore, there's no accountability of the current government".