NDA vs INDIA | Impact of Opposition alliance in 2024 Lok Sabha polls

If we take a look at the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, there are 190 seats where there was a direct contest between Congress and BJP and regional parties or INDIA allies have limited or no influence. And in these 19 seats, the second runner-up got more votes than the winning margin.

These seats are majorly spread out in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, Gujarat, Chhattisgarh, Karnataka, and Haryana.

Then there are seats where INDIA allies were in contest with each other and the number stands at 276. With these parties contesting together, there will not be a division of votes giving them an advantage.

"With Congress at the fulcrum, this alliance will stay. Also, people have seen UPA-I and -II giving them confidence there is also an alternative in the upcoming polls," says Amitabh Tiwari, a political commentator.

In 71 seats, the contest was between Congress and regional parties and a fight will be seen in at least 36 of these seats. Parties like Telugu Desam Party, Bahujan Samaj Party, YSR Congress Party, Bharat Rashtra Samiti, Biju Janata Dal and a few others have not joined either of the camps.

There was also a contest between regional parties on as many as 97 seats. The Janata Dal United has left NDA to join INDIA and an impact can be seen on 17 seats where it will be in a direct contest with the BJP. Also, a split has happened in Shiv Sena and Nationalist Congress Party and both parties have a hold in Maharashtra, a state which has 48 Lok Sabha seats.

Lastly, there was a fight between BJP and regional parties on as many as 185 seats wherein Congress was the second runner up in 88 seats. In 55 such seats, Congress got more votes polled than the victory margin.

There were 14 seats in the 2019 polls where the collective vote of INDIA was more than that of the BJP. "The coming together of the Opposition will make a difference in the polls but the alliance need to work on a common minimum programme, seat sharing and stay united," says Sanjay Jog, a senior journalist.

Predicting the results 10 months prior to the event is difficult, analysts say, adding that if things go as per the 2019 elections, then the Opposition is expected to make gains and it will not be a one-sided fight.

Also, the Modi government is facing double anti-incumbency. "In the last elections, people did not see an alternative, but this time there is one. We can see fight in many seats and the Opposition is likely to raise its tally in the Lower House," all three persons quoted above opined.

In the recent elections, the BJP has lost three states — Punjab, Himachal Pradesh and Karnataka. Polls are due in five states by the year-end and in three — Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh — there is a direct contest between the BJP and Congress for the general elections.

If the BJP loses any of the states, the wind may blow in a different direction for the saffron party.

In the last two general elections, a direct link between a party's performance in state polls and Lok Sabha polls was not seen, but these upcoming assembly polls can be seen as a percussor to the Lok Sabha elections as the narrative is also changing.

Every state has some swing votes and voters decide on a party just days before the polls, somewhat influenced by the buzz. This time, both alliances will try hard to gain the confidence of these voters.

Sanjay Jha, a political commentator and former Congress leader, is optimistic about the INDIA alliance taking on the BJP. He says, "INDIA alliance will form the government and BJP's tally will go down badly. It is a strategic alliance which recognised the dangers posed by the BJP to the country."