In the Northeastern state of Assam, anticipation and reflection grip voters as the upcoming Lok Sabha elections loom on the horizon. According to a recent News18 opinion poll, Assam's political landscape appears poised for significant changes, with the projection indicating a sweeping victory for the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), capturing 12 out of the 14 total seats, I.N.D.I.A. bloc zero, and others managing to secure two seats (All India United Democratic Front — AIUDF one, and Bodoland People's Front — BPF one).
The vote share distribution portrays a commanding lead for the NDA with 49%, followed by I.N.D.I.A with 35%, and others with 16%. Further examination reveals that AIUDF holds 6%, BPF 2%, and the remaining others account for 8% of the vote share.
High levels of satisfaction with Assam government, CM
Regarding the Assam government's performance, out of 3,333 respondents, 53% of respondents expressed being very satisfied, while 31% indicated they were somewhat satisfied. A notable 11% reported feeling neither satisfied nor dissatisfied, indicating a degree of ambivalence. Dissatisfaction levels were relatively low, with only 2% and 1% of respondents expressing somewhat and very dissatisfied sentiments, respectively.
Similarly, when evaluating the performance of the Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma, 53% of respondents expressed being very satisfied, and 29% reported being somewhat satisfied. However, a slightly higher proportion of respondents, 13%, indicated neither satisfaction nor dissatisfaction, suggesting a more mixed sentiment. Dissatisfaction levels mirrored those of the government, with only 2% expressing somewhat dissatisfied and very dissatisfied sentiments, each.
Public sentiment towards central government, MPs
Delving deeper into public sentiment, the News18 opinion poll gauged satisfaction levels with both the performance of the central government and the sitting MPs over the past five years.
According to the polls, conducted among 3,333 individuals across Assam, a staggering 88% expressed varying degrees of satisfaction with the performance of the central government and PM Modi over the past five years. Specifically, 88% felt somewhat to very satisfied, while only 3% and 2% expressed somewhat and very dissatisfied, respectively.
Delving deeper into satisfaction levels with their respective MPs, the survey revealed that out of the 3,333 individuals polled, 49% expressed being very satisfied, and 31% were somewhat satisfied with the performance of their sitting MPs. Conversely, only a combined 6% expressed dissatisfaction, with 3% each feeling somewhat and very dissatisfied. Interestingly, a significant 12% stated they were neither satisfied nor dissatisfied.
Key factors influencing voter decision-making
Moreover, when asked about the factors influencing their decision on which party to vote for in the upcoming elections, respondents highlighted jobs as the most crucial factor, with 66% considering it pivotal. Following closely were concerns regarding the law and order situation, cited by 42% of those surveyed, while 34% emphasised the importance of addressing corruption.
Additionally, 28% of respondents cited religious considerations, with 26% expressing concerns about inflation, and 25% prioritising infrastructure and development initiatives.
2019 Lok Sabha election results
Reflecting on the 2019 Lok Sabha election results in Assam, Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) emerged as the dominant force, securing nine out of the total 14 seats. The Indian National Congress (INC) followed with three seats, while the All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF) and Independent candidates clinched one seat each.
Notably, INC leader Gaurav Gogoi had secured victory in the Kaliabor constituency, while Horen Sing Bey of the BJP had won in the Autonomous District.
As Assam gears up for another electoral battle, the opinions reflected in these polls offer insights into the prevailing sentiments among the electorate and hint at potential shifts in political dynamics in the region.
