BJP may gain nothing politically from Rahul Gandhi’s legally correct disqualification as MP

The Congress is likely to be more open to accommodating regional parties if it senses that its ‘first family’ is directly under attack now. And this may mean suspension of its own projection as a necessary condition for doing business with other parties. This, in turn, may stoke Prime Ministerial ambitions in regional leaders who may hope that any unexpected reversal of the BJP’s fortunes will open a possible window of opportunity for them.

Till now, opposition unity has seemed impossible, as regional heavyweights in the opposition have fancied the idea of replacing the Congress. The prime reason for this has been the decimation of the Congress in states witnessing direct Lok Sabha contests against the BJP in 2014 and 2019, when Rahul Gandhi was its de facto face. The regional opposition parties, be it Trinamool Congress or Biju Janata Dal, did much better against the BJP in their strongholds.

The Congress, however, kept focusing on bolstering the appeal of Rahul Gandhi, choosing to focus solely on the Bharat Jodo Yatra even when the party had crucial assembly polls like Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh to face.

Thus, Rahul Gandhi getting legally disqualified from being the electoral face of the party can indeed change this dynamics of a listless Congress focusing only on one leader and regional parties fancying their chances of replacing it. It may now make greater sense for some opposition leaders to try and weave a larger opposition alliance with leaders across parties, including the Congress, sensing a remote chance of getting elevated to the top post in the unlikely event of a dramatic reversal in the fortunes of the BJP.

Recently, Mamata Banerjee took a dig at Rahul Gandhi, calling him the biggest TRP for the BJP. If Gandhi ceases to be the electoral face of the Congress, an increased opposition unity isn’t ruled out, unless the Congress decides to project Priyanka Gandhi and thus disappoints regional opposition parties. This, too, is a distinct possibility, as the Congress has given ample evidence that it values its first family more than electoral strategy.

Be that as it may, the conviction has also deprived the BJP of the line – sharply taken after Rahul Gandhi’s UK tour – that Gandhi is ‘hand-in-glove’ with influential global players to damage the global reputation of the country. Gandhi’s conviction has suddenly changed the whole debate, something that does not benefit the BJP.

These possible political consequences will play out independently of the legal aspects of the whole controversy, for the latter aspects lie in the domain of law rather than popular political discourse.

Legally speaking, the Lok Sabha Secretariat’s move is correct. As per Article 102 (1) (e) of the constitution, a Member of Parliament is disqualified “if he is so disqualified by or under any law made by Parliament”. This is one of the grounds for disqualification under Article 102.

The relevant Indian law to which Article 102 applies in this case is the Representation of People Act, 1951, which deals with the conduct of elections and qualifications and disqualifications for being legislators at the central as well as state levels. Section 8 (3) of the Act says, “A person convicted of any offence and sentenced to imprisonment for not less than two years shall be disqualified from the date of such conviction and shall continue to be disqualified for a further period of six years since his release.” The disqualification can be reversed only if a higher court stays the conviction – and not just the sentence – or rules in favour of the said disqualified member in the said criminal case.

Section 8 (4) of the RPA, which said that the disqualification comes into force three months after the conviction, was struck down by the Supreme Court in the Lily Thomas vs Union of India case in 2013. So, since 2013, the disqualification after conviction has to be immediate.

Soon after the 2013 judgment of the Supreme Court, when the Manmohan Singh government was in power, an Ordinance was promulgated to shield legislators convicted of criminal offences from disqualification, purportedly to save RJD leader Lalu Prasad from disqualification.

Significantly, it was Rahul Gandhi who dramatically tore that Ordinance in front of media persons on September 27, 2013, making the UPA government change its mind. Had Gandhi not done so, he would have escaped disqualification now.

However, if Rahul Gandhi stays disqualified and cannot contest the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, the BJP, which has made targeting him its prime political weapon, will be deprived of what has till now been its easiest target. This may, in fact, not help the ruling party’s electoral cause in any way.

One wonders whether the Narendra Modi government would want to surprise the world by introducing a Bill or having an Ordinance promulgated for shielding Rahul Gandhi from a possible six years’ disqualification and confuse the Congress as well as the global press?

That may not be Modi’s style, but may indeed make the battle for 2024 very interesting.