Bihar Elections: Why the BJP will win even if NDA loses

While we are a few hours away from Tuesday's results, that high political stakes are involved for both alliances in the race for Bihar is not lost upon anyone. For instance, a win for Tejashwi-led RJD will help the young Yadav scion stamp his authority on the party, after his lacklustre performance in the Lok Sabha elections last year where his party failed to win a single seat. On the other hand, a loss could further dent his image and put a question mark on his leadership credentials.

For Nitish Kumar, a defeat will be largely in line with the past trends as no chief minister in the heartland has ever won a fourth term. More importantly, his political capital will further decline and push him to a forced retirement or 'sanyas,' as he announced during the last phase of the campaign. The 69-year-old Nitish's retirement could spell the doom for the JDU as well. With no mass leader at the helm, the JDU could see a large exodus of rank and file.

For the BJP, if the exit poll results hold true, the party will lose another big state (Maharashtra being the other) with a sizeable number of Lok Sabha seats, causing seeds of self-doubts. On the other hand, it could give realistic hopes to the opposition to cobble another mahagathbandhan in the upcoming elections in states like Bengal and Uttar Pradesh. While the next Lok Sabha elections are due in 2024, a win for the mahagathbandhan could rekindle a sense of purpose within the opposition, mainly Congress and the Left parties, to take on the NDA.

But the long-term prospects of the BJP in Bihar look promising even if the saffron party warms the opposition benches. For starters, it could benefit from the decline of the JDU and could become the main pivot against the RJD mahagathbandhan. It could become a rallying point for the extremely backward classes and non-Paswan Dalits, a constituency nurtured by Nitish, along with the BJP's core constituency of upper castes and businesses, against the Muslim-Yadav combine of the RJD.

BJP's expansion at the cost of the JDU, however, could further ring alarm bells in the National Democratic Alliance partners. The break-up with the Shiv Sena in Maharashtra and later, with the Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) in Punjab, indicates that allies are feeling the heat from the bigger NDA partner as the Modi-Shah combine aggressively push for the expansion of the BJP across the country.

Riding on the popularity of Prime Minister Narendra Modi-led two successive Lok Sabha majorities, the party could mull charting an independent course or a much trimmed NDA. The party has been able to expand its social base due to Modi's popularity as well as a slew of social welfare programmes.

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