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US Elections 2020: How the results will affect India, emerging markets

What will the outcome of the 2020 US elections mean for developed markets, emerging markets, and India in particular?

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By Latha Venkatesh   | Sonia Shenoy   | Anuj Singhal  Nov 4, 2020 12:15:29 PM IST (Updated)

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What will the outcome of the 2020 US elections mean for developed markets, emerging markets, and India in particular?

In an interview to CNBC-TV18, Rana Gupta, MD of Manulife Investment Management said that a Trump victory could result in a lower fiscal stimulus for the US economy than what the market is expecting.
“This election is important in the sense that if we get a Democratic President and Democratic Senate, the probability of a higher fiscal stimulus will be higher. We do not know how the race will pan out, but I think the Senate race is far more important in terms of what kind of policy stimulus is going to come,” he said.
He further added that if there is a fiscal stimulus of USD 2 trillion or higher in the US, then growth oriented sectors like industrials, materials would do well.
“If there is more dependence on monetary policy, then sectors dependent on lower rates, for example technology will continue to do well,” he added.
Gupta said that the emerging economies are recovering from the COVID shock and that the recovery will continue. He further added that capital flow in emerging markets should also continue.
Manishi Raychaudhuri, Asian Equity Strategist at BNP Paribas believes that Donald Trump coming back will mean continuing US-China tensions.
“For the broader technology universe, the picture maybe a little muddled because President Trump coming back would pretty much mean more of the same which essentially means the US-China tensions as far as the tech universe is concerned continuing for some time longer and possibly even accelerating going forward,” he said.
However, he added that from an Indian context, BNP Paribas will continue to bet on the IT services companies.
Paul Schulte, Founder & Editor of Schulte Research said that irrespective of who wins, massive number of companies are in a shambles and there is going to be a need for a multi-year cleansing of indices.
Schulte also said he is optimistic on emerging markets. “The dollar will weaken and you will see emerging markets outperform because emerging markets is really a currency play. So, I am optimistic there and I think emerging markets are very underweight globally. People have got other options or eyeballs than US equities and so I think that there is going to be some rebalancing going forward into next year, especially in Asia,” he said.

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