The markets have a mind of their own. Last Friday, the Nifty 50 posted its best single-day performance in two months. If not for Friday's rally, it'd have been the sixth straight weekly decline, the worst streak for the Indian benchmark index in over three years.
Friday's close was only the second instance since August 16 when the Nifty 50 has managed to sustain above the 19,400 mark. It now finds itself at a key resistance level of 19,450, as it reversed around 20 points from the day's high of 19,458. The question now is, has the Nifty 50 opened the doors for a move towards 19,600?
"The Nifty 50 has formed a double bottom on the daily and intraday charts, indicating a strong possibility of a fresh uptrend," said Amol Athawale of Kotak Securities. Above 19,350, the Nifty 50 can move towards 19,575, while a slip below that can take it back to 19,220, he added.
Nagaraj Shetti of HDFC Securities expects further upside in the short-term for the Nifty 50. He sees next hurdles for the index at 19,600 and 19,800 in the next few weeks with immediate support at 19,350.
The September futures and options (F&O) series began on a positive note for the Nifty Bank as well. It managed to claw its way back above the 44,000 mark after an entire week. Kunal Shah of LKP Securities also agrees that the next hurdle for the Nifty Bank is indeed 44,500, above which, the index can see fresh upward movement.
The overall stance of the index, according to Shah, is bullish, as long as it manages to hold on to the support levels of 44,000 - 43,800.
The Nifty Bank took support at its 100-day moving average (DMA) of 43,930 after a second straight day of gains, said Ashwin Ramani of SAMCO Securities. A close above Friday's high of 44,569 will trigger fresh upward movement in the index, according to him.
BHEL was the stock of last week. The country's largest state-owned power equipment maker saw a dizzying rally after it won a large order from NTPC, a power producer that is also owned by the Indian government.
BHEL shares closed at a seven-year high on Friday. The stock also gained 30 percent last week, which was its best weekly performance since it went public in 1991. You can read more about that here.
The other outperformer of the week was Vodafone Idea, which gained over 10 percent on Friday and also crossed the mark of Rs 10 for the first time in nearly a year-and-a-half. The stock has now gained nearly 80 percent from its 52-week low which it made in March this year. The telecom operator also repaid Rs 1,398 crore to Franklin Templeton as part of its dues.
What Are The F&O Cues Indicating?
Nifty 50's September futures shed 4.8 percent and 4.87 lakh shares in Open Interest. They are now trading at a premium of 76.8 points compared to 160 points earlier. On the other hand, Nifty Bank's September futures shed 8.6 percent or 2.03 lakh shares in Open Interest. Nifty 50's Put-Call Ratio is now at 1.3 from 1.19 earlier.
Indiabulls Housing Finance is back in the F&O ban list from today's session.
Nifty 50 on the Call side for September 7 expiry:
For this Thursday's weekly expiry, the Nifty 50 call strikes between 19,450 and 19,600 have seen addition in Open Interest. The 19,600 strike has seen the maximum Open Interest addition.
Strike | OI Change | Premium |
19,600 | 23.27 Lakh Added | 23.9 |
19,500 | 16.5 Lakh Added | 56.55 |
19,550 | 16.05 Lakh Added | 37.7 |
19,450 | 13.02 Lakh Added | 80.9 |
Nifty 50 on the Put side for September 7 expiry:
On the downside, the Nifty 50 put strikes between 19,300 and 19,400 have seen Open Interest addition, with the 19,300 strike seeing the highest Open Interest added for this Thursday's expiry.
Strike | OI Change | Premium |
19,300 | 56.91 Lakh Added | 37.3 |
19,350 | 33.05 Lakh Added | 50.1 |
19,400 | 21.4 Lakh Added | 67.2 |
Lets take a look at the stocks that added fresh long positions on Friday, meaning an increase in both price and Open Interest:
Stock | Price Change | OI Change |
BHEL | 11.53% | 34.52% |
India Cements | 10.62% | 25.44% |
Vodafone Idea | 10.38% | 20.92% |
ONGC | 3.76% | 16.68% |
Oracle Financial Services | 1.13% | 15.52% |
Lets take a look at the stocks that added fresh short positions on Friday, meaning a decrease in price but increase in Open Interest:
Stock | Price Change | OI Change |
Torrent Pharma | -3.11% | 26.23% |
Indiabulls Housing Finance | -0.98% | 16.83% |
Escorts Kubota | -0.28% | 16.27% |
RBL Bank | -0.13% | 9.48% |
HDFC AMC | -0.01% | 8.35% |
These are the stocks to watch out for in Monday's trading session:
What Are Global Cues Indicating?
Markets in the Asia-Pacific have had a mixed start to the trading day as investors look forward to key data from Australia and China later this week.
The Nikkei 225 and Topix are up 0.1 percent each, while South Korea's Kospi is up 0.2 percent. The Kosdaq is down a similar quantum. Hong Kong's markets will resume trading after a holiday on Friday due to the super Typhoon Saola.
US markets ended mixed on Friday with the Dow Jones outperforming its peers. The index ended 100 points higher to notch its best week since July.
On the other hand, the S&P 500 gained 0.2 percent, while the Nasdaq ended with minor losses. Indices ended off the day's high though, as the Dow, at one point, traded with gains of as high as 250 points.
For the week, the Nasdaq added 3.3 percent, while the S&P 500 had its best week since June, gaining 2.5 percent.
Both foreign and domestic investors were buyers in the cash market on Friday and that is courtesy of a slew of block deals in stocks like IDFC First Bank, Five Star Business Finance and others.
Rupak De of LKP Securities noted that the Nifty 50 has moved above the 21-Day Exponential Moving Average for the first time in several days as well as broken out of a falling channel. He sees an immediate resistance for the index at 19,530, above which, the index could continue its uptrend. Downside support is seen at 19,340.
"On the upside, the Nifty 50 has several hurdles during the placement of the falling trendline," said Mehul Kothari of Anand Rathi. He further said that 19,600 may act as an immediate hurdle and a close above the same can bring the bulls back in action.
First Published: Sept 3, 2023 1:30 PM IST
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