The March F&O series is set to end this week, which will have only three trading sessions, including the F&O expiry session on Thursday. The Nifty is up only 100 points this series so far and while on face value, this seems flat, the price action this series has been anything but flat.
After making a recent swing low of 21,710 last Wednesday, the Nifty has managed to recover over 300 points from those levels. Yet, it remains over 450 points below its recent record high of 22,526.
The end of this truncated week will also mark the end of the March quarter and financial year 2024, post which, companies will start reporting their quarterly business updates and earnings season will begin as well.
Last Friday's trading session saw foreign institutions continue to remain sellers in the cash market, while domestic institutions were net buyers.
The Nifty has formed a promising reversal formation and is trading above its 50-DMA, which is largely positive, said Shrikant Chouhan of Kotak Securities. Till the index remains above 21,950, the positive momentum will continue towards 22,220 - 22,350 levels, he said. On the flip side, a slip below 21,950 can take the index back down to 21,800 levels.
Nagaraj Shetti of HDFC Securities said that the Nifty has formed a small positive candle with a longer shadow. A sharp move is needed above the 22,200 - 22,300 mark can take it back to levels of 22,550. Immediate downside support is at 22,080 levels.
The Nifty needs to cross the 22,100 mark to witness a clear rally towards its previous record high of 22,526, said Rupak De of LKP Securities. On the lower end, 21,950 may remain a key support for the index. A slip below this level may take the index into a phase of consolidation.
After a nine-day drop, the Nifty Bank has recovered over 500 points during the last two trading sessions. The two-day move has also taken the index closer to the 47,000 mark, which is a level that the index has not closed above since March 12. For the March series so far, the index has risen by over 700 points.
The Nifty Bank continues to face resistance above the 47,000 mark, said Kunal Shah of LKP Securities. The index though, has support between levels of 46,600 - 46,500. It needs a sustained move above 47,000 to trigger short covering towards levels of 48,000 and beyond, he added.
Om Mehra of SAMCO Securities said that the Nifty Bank's technical indicators like the MACD and RSI are in a neutral zone. 46,000 is a key support level for the index and as long as the Index remains above this pivot level, the prevailing indication remains for an upward trajectory in the near term.
What Are The F&O Cues Indicating?
Nifty 50's futures across series shed 4.7% in Open Interest on Friday. Rollovers going into expiry week are currently at 36%. The futures are trading at a premium of 68.7 points compared to 90.55 points earlier. On the other hand, Nifty Bank's futures across series shed 2% in Open Interest on Friday and current rollovers are at 69%. Nifty 50's Put-Call Ratio is now at 1.23 from 1.2 earlier.
Balrampur Chini, Piramal Enterprises and Indus Towers are out of the F&O Ban.
SAIL, Zee Entertainment, Biocon and Tata Chemicals remain in the F&O ban.
Nifty 50 on the Call side for March 28 expiry:
On the Call side, the Nifty 50 strikes between 22,050 and 22,300 saw addition in Open Interest for this Thursday's monthly F&O expiry.
Strike | OI Change | Premium |
22,300 | 17.82 Lakh Added | 56.95 |
22,050 | 14.23 Lakh Added | 186.85 |
22,100 | 11.64 Lakh Added | 156 |
22,150 | 11.46 Lakh Added | 126.25 |
Nifty 50 on the Put side for March 28 expiry:
On the Put side, the Nifty 50 strikes between 21,900 and 22,100 have seen Open Interest addition for this Thursday's monthly expiry.
Strike | OI Change | Premium |
22,100 | 36.79 Lakh Added | 90.1 |
22,000 | 31.92 Lakh Added | 60.6 |
21,900 | 24.15 Lakh Added | 40.35 |
Ahead of the F&O series expiry, these stocks saw short covering on Friday, meaning an increase in price but decline in Open Interest:
Stock | Price Change | OI Change |
Bajaj Auto | 2.47% | -26.67% |
Dr Lal Pathlabs | 2.40% | -26.29% |
Dr Reddy's Labs | 1.20% | -26.11% |
Hero MotoCorp | 3.91% | -26.08% |
Astral | 0.01% | -25.98% |
Unwinding of long positions was seen in these stocks on Friday, meaning a decline in both price and Open Interest:
Stock | Price Change | OI Change |
RBL Bank | -0.68% | -45.14% |
MRF | -0.24% | -33.59% |
Persistent Systems | -2.45% | -32.12% |
Abbott India | -2.37% | -31.82% |
Muthoot Finance | -0.66% | -31.14% |
These are the stocks to watch out for ahead of Tuesday's trading session:
First Published: Mar 25, 2024 7:42 PM IST
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