homemarket NewsTrade Setup for March 26: Nifty to see more volatility in truncated expiry week?

Trade Setup for March 26: Nifty to see more volatility in truncated expiry week?

After a nine-day drop, the Nifty Bank has recovered over 500 points during the last two trading sessions.

Profile image

By Hormaz Fatakia  Mar 26, 2024 8:13:08 AM IST (Updated)

Listen to the Article(6 Minutes)
8 Min Read
Trade Setup for March 26: Nifty to see more volatility in truncated expiry week?
The March F&O series is set to end this week, which will have only three trading sessions, including the F&O expiry session on Thursday. The Nifty is up only 100 points this series so far and while on face value, this seems flat, the price action this series has been anything but flat.

Share Market Live

View All

After making a recent swing low of 21,710 last Wednesday, the Nifty has managed to recover over 300 points from those levels. Yet, it remains over 450 points below its recent record high of 22,526.
The end of this truncated week will also mark the end of the March quarter and financial year 2024, post which, companies will start reporting their quarterly business updates and earnings season will begin as well.
Last Friday's trading session saw foreign institutions continue to remain sellers in the cash market, while domestic institutions were net buyers.
The Nifty has formed a promising reversal formation and is trading above its 50-DMA, which is largely positive, said Shrikant Chouhan of Kotak Securities. Till the index remains above 21,950, the positive momentum will continue towards 22,220 - 22,350 levels, he said. On the flip side, a slip below 21,950 can take the index back down to 21,800 levels.
Nagaraj Shetti of HDFC Securities said that the Nifty has formed a small positive candle with a longer shadow. A sharp move is needed above the 22,200 - 22,300 mark can take it back to levels of 22,550. Immediate downside support is at 22,080 levels.
The Nifty needs to cross the 22,100 mark to witness a clear rally towards its previous record high of 22,526, said Rupak De of LKP Securities. On the lower end, 21,950 may remain a key support for the index. A slip below this level may take the index into a phase of consolidation.
After a nine-day drop, the Nifty Bank has recovered over 500 points during the last two trading sessions. The two-day move has also taken the index closer to the 47,000 mark, which is a level that the index has not closed above since March 12. For the March series so far, the index has risen by over 700 points.
The Nifty Bank continues to face resistance above the 47,000 mark, said Kunal Shah of LKP Securities. The index though, has support between levels of 46,600 - 46,500. It needs a sustained move above 47,000 to trigger short covering towards levels of 48,000 and beyond, he added.
Om Mehra of SAMCO Securities said that the Nifty Bank's technical indicators like the MACD and RSI are in a neutral zone. 46,000 is a key support level for the index and as long as the Index remains above this pivot level, the prevailing indication remains for an upward trajectory in the near term.

What Are The F&O Cues Indicating?

Nifty 50's futures across series shed 4.7% in Open Interest on Friday. Rollovers going into expiry week are currently at 36%. The futures are trading at a premium of 68.7 points compared to 90.55 points earlier. On the other hand, Nifty Bank's futures across series shed 2% in Open Interest on Friday and current rollovers are at 69%. Nifty 50's Put-Call Ratio is now at 1.23 from 1.2 earlier.
Balrampur Chini, Piramal Enterprises and Indus Towers are out of the F&O Ban.
SAIL, Zee Entertainment, Biocon and Tata Chemicals remain in the F&O ban.
Nifty 50 on the Call side for March 28 expiry:
On the Call side, the Nifty 50 strikes between 22,050 and 22,300 saw addition in Open Interest for this Thursday's monthly F&O expiry.
StrikeOI ChangePremium
22,30017.82 Lakh Added56.95
22,05014.23 Lakh Added186.85
22,10011.64 Lakh Added156
22,15011.46 Lakh Added126.25
Nifty 50 on the Put side for March 28 expiry:
On the Put side, the Nifty 50 strikes between 21,900 and 22,100 have seen Open Interest addition for this Thursday's monthly expiry.
StrikeOI ChangePremium
22,10036.79 Lakh Added90.1
22,00031.92 Lakh Added60.6
21,90024.15 Lakh Added40.35
Ahead of the F&O series expiry, these stocks saw short covering on Friday, meaning an increase in price but decline in Open Interest:
StockPrice ChangeOI Change
Bajaj Auto2.47%-26.67%
Dr Lal Pathlabs2.40%-26.29%
Dr Reddy's Labs1.20%-26.11%
Hero MotoCorp3.91%-26.08%
Astral0.01%-25.98%
Unwinding of long positions was seen in these stocks on Friday, meaning a decline in both price and Open Interest:
StockPrice ChangeOI Change
RBL Bank-0.68%-45.14%
MRF-0.24%-33.59%
Persistent Systems-2.45%-32.12%
Abbott India-2.37%-31.82%
Muthoot Finance-0.66%-31.14%
These are the stocks to watch out for ahead of Tuesday's trading session:
  • Adani Ports & SEZ: To acquire 95% stake in Gopalpur Ports for an enterprise value of ₹3,080 crore and a cash consideration of ₹1,349 crore. The transaction is likely to be completed in the first quarter of financial year 2025. Majority stake in Gopalpur Ports was held by an SP Group unit.
  • Insurance Stocks: IRDAI comes out with final regulations in relation to surrender value from April 1, 2024. The surrender value is expected to remain the same or even lower if policies are surrendered up to three years. It may see a minor increase if policies surrendered between fourth to seventh year. IRDAI has also approved Bima Sugam.
  • Dr. Reddy's Laboratories: Enters into licensing agreement with Pharmazz to market first in-class Centhaquine for hypovolemic shock in India. Centhaquine is a resuscitative agent presently indicated for the treatment of hypovolemic shock by the Drugs Controller General of India. Dr. Reddy's has received exclusive rights to market and distribute the product in India. Pharmazz will be entitled to upfront payments and royalties. It has also won marketing rights for the said drug for Nepal.
  • Mankind Pharma: Beige Ltd. to sell up to 2.9% stake via block deals. Biege Ltd. currently holds 2.99% stake in the company. Offer price is in the range of ₹2,103 - ₹2,214 per share. Offer size at the lower range is worth ₹2,460 crore.
  • Uno Minda: Enters into a Technical License Agreement with Starcharge Energy Pte. Ltd. to manufacture and sell Electric Vehicle Supply Equipment in India. The EVSE comprises of wall-mounted AC chargers designed for convenient home charging. These chargers are usually sold along with EVs to customers. StarCharge is a global leader in EV charging infrastructure and microgrid solutions and operates in 67 countries with manufacturing facilities in the US, Vietnam and China.
  • Hindustan Aeronautics: Signs contract with Guyana Defence Force for supply of two Hindustan-228 commuter aircraft along with Manufacturer Recommended List of Spares (MRLS), Ground Handling Equipment / Ground Support Equipment, Training, Hand-holding for a sum of ₹194 crore.
  • Zydus Life: Gets tentative approval from the USFDA for Letermovir Tablets 240 mg and 480 mg. These tablets are used to prevent disease caused by a virus called Cytomegalovirus.
  • Paradeep Phosphates: Central Pollution Control Board issues closure of operations notice to its plant in Paradeep, Odisha. Operations to remain closed till directions are complied with and written permission to resume operations is obtained from the CPCB.
  • Maruti Suzuki: Recalls 11,851 units of Baleno and 4,190 units of WagonR on possible defect in a part of fuel pump motor. Baleno and WagonR units recalled were manufactured between July 30, 2019 and November 1, 2019.
  • Welspun Corp: Associate company EPIC agrees to cancel ₹339 crore contract with Saudi Aramco. This development has no impact on EPIC as this contract was not included in EPIC's production schedule for the current fiscal year, raw materials related to the contract have not been purchased yet and operating plans are not affected due to this cancellation. However, EPIC has signed a contract with Saline Water Conversion Corporation worth ₹512 crore for manufacturing and supply of steel pipes for 30 months. The financial impact of the contract will be reflected in Q1 FY25 till Q3 FY27.
  • Lupin: To carve out trade generics business in India on a slump sale basis to Lupin Lifesciences for ₹100 croire to ₹120 crore. Business transfer agreement likely to be signed in the first quarter of financial year 2025.
  • JSW Energy: Arm JSW Renewable Energy (Coated) signs a Business Transfer Agreement with Reliance Power for the purchase of 45 MW Vashpet Wind Project for ₹132 crore.
  • RVNL: Signs MoU with Airports Authority of India for a project worth ₹229.43 crore.
  • NBCC: Conducts 25th auction for sale of space in World Trade Centre, Nauroji Nagar, New Delhi and sells unsold commercial inventory worth ₹1,904.81 crore to private entities.
  • ICICI Securities: Gets administrative warning from SEBI after inspection of books and records for the merchant banking activities of the company.
  • Indian Metals and Ferro Alloys: To consider special dividend for financial year 2024 on March 29.
  • Sun TV: Board meet to consider interim dividend on March 28, 2024.
  • NTPC: Declares commercial operations of Jharkhand's Chatti Bariatu Coal Mining Project from April 1, 2024.
  • UltraTech Cement: Has commissioned 1 MTPA brownfield cement capacity at Roorkee in Uttarakhand. With this, the capacity at the Roorkee plant has increased to 2.1 MTPA.
  • Hinduja Global Solutions: Enters into agreement to sell the company's optical fibre assets to its arm IMCH Solutions for ₹208 crore.
  • Exide Industries: The company has invested a sum of ₹110 crore through subscription of equity share capital of its wholly-owned subsidiary Chloride Metals on a rights basis. The subsidiary is engaged in the production of metals and metal products. The same arm Chloride Metals has received an Income Tax demand of ₹133 crore for assessment year 2022-2023.
  • Sanghi Industries: Ambuja Cements sells 2% stake for ₹258.32 crore. Ambuja's stake now down to 60.44% from 62.44% earlier.
  • Most Read

    Share Market Live

    View All
    Top GainersTop Losers
    CurrencyCommodities
    CurrencyPriceChange%Change