This three-day truncated week comes to an end on Thursday. So far, it has been one up day and one down day for the Nifty. The index recovered all that it lost on Tuesday and a little more courtesy of Reliance Industries, which contributed to two-thirds of the Nifty's advance in mid-week trading. That happened courtesy of a positive brokerage note from Goldman Sachs. You can read more on that here.
Reliance did all that it could to take the Nifty higher and was ably supported by HDFC Bank as well. Yet, it could not take the index past that much dreaded resistance level of 22,200. Although the Nifty did cross last Friday's high of 22,180, making a new high of 22,193 on Wednesday, but it could not sustain at those levels, eventually ending 70 points off the session's high.
Thursday will be the monthly F&O expiry of the Nifty contracts. So far, the Nifty is up only 100 points this series. Thursday will also be the end of the January-March quarter, which will also mark the end of financial year 2024.
For the quarter, the Nifty is up 1.8%, having given up substantial gains from its recent peak of 22,526. For financial year 2024, the Nifty has delivered returns of 27.4%.
Levels remain the same to track even for Thursday's session. On the downside, the 50-Day Moving Average of 21,950 and then the recent swing low of 21,710 remain the key levels to watch, while on the upside, the 20-DMA of around 22,160 and then Wednesday's high of 22,193 will be the levels to keep an eye out for.
Both foreign and domestic investors were net buyers in the cash market on Wednesday. The numbers though will be skewed due to the block deals that took place in stocks like CDSL and Aster DM Healthcare.
Nagaraj Shetti of HDFC Securities said that the current chart patterns of the Nifty remain positive but rangebound. The upper end of the range is at 22,200 above which a breakout is essential for the index to regain momentum towards newer highs. Any weakness from here can take the Nifty back down to 21,900, he added.
The market texture is bullish but in the near future, the 20-DMA of 22,170 will act as a key resistance for the bulls, said Shrikant Chouhan of Kotak Securities. A break above that level can take the index towards 22,300 - 22,350 levels, but a slip below 22,080 may drag the index back down to 21,950 - 21,900 levels.
The Nifty Bank continued to oscillate in the 300-point range, finding support at the 46,600 mark on the downside but continuing to struggle for crossing the 47,000 mark on the upside. HDFC Bank led the charge on Wednesday but was offset by SBI. However, a late surge ensured the index closed with gains of 200 points.
Om Mehra of SAMCO Securities said that the Nifty Bank has formed a bullish candle on the daily chart. While support on the downside remains at 46,350 levels, the index continues to face hurdles between 47,000 - 47,300.
A decisive breakout above the 20-Day Moving Average of 46,950 is needed for the Nifty Bank to trigger sharp short covering moves towards levels of 48,000, said Kunal Shah of LKP Securities. Downside support remains between levels of 46,500 - 46,400.
What Are The F&O Cues Indicating?
Nifty 50's futures across all series added 4.1% in Open Interest on Wednesday with rollovers currently at 62%. They are trading at a premium of 43.4 points compared to 83.85 points earlier. On the other hand, Nifty Bank's futures across series added 1.2% in Open Interest on Wednesday, with current rollovers at 87%. Nifty 50's Put-Call Ratio is now at 1.15 from 1.09 earlier.
SAIL is out of the F&O Ban, while Hindustan Copper and Zee Entertainment are back in the ban on F&O expiry day.
Nifty 50 on the Call side for March 28 expiry:
For Thursday's monthly expiry, the Nifty 50 Call strikes between 22,150 - 22,400 have seen Open Interest addition, while the 22,000 strike has seen Open Interest shedding.
| Strike | OI Change | Premium |
| 22,400 | 31.06 Lakh Added | 2.85 |
| 22,200 | 22.17 Lakh Added | 41.8 |
| 22,150 | 21.19 Lakh Added | 67.55 |
| 22,250 | 12.17 Lakh Added | 23.65 |
| 22,000 | 10.26 Lakh Shed | 178.85 |
Nifty 50 on the Put side for March 28 expiry:
On the Put side, the Nifty 50 strikes between 22,000 and 22,200 have seen Open Interest addition for this Thursday's expiry.
| Strike | OI Change | Premium |
| 22,100 | 69.51 Lakh Added | 34.8 |
| 22,150 | 40.73 Lakh Added | 52.55 |
| 22,000 | 36.41 Lakh Added | 14.95 |
| 22,200 | 31.72 Lakh Added | 77.1 |
On the penultimate day of the March F&O series, these stocks saw addition of fresh longs on Wednesday, meaning an increase in both price and Open Interest:
| Stock | Price Change | OI Change |
| L&T | 0.81% | 30.12% |
| Axis Bank | 0.98% | 29.51% |
| Godrej Consumer | 2.42% | 27.93% |
| Titan | 1.27% | 26.77% |
| Reliance Industries | 3.25% | 18.66% |
Short covering was seen in these stocks on Wednesday, meaning an increase in price but decline in Open Interest:
| Stock | Price Change | OI Change |
| Coromandel International | 1.07% | -32.10% |
| M&M Finance | 0.07% | -28.27% |
| Bajaj Auto | 2.20% | -26.83% |
| Syngene | 0.97% | -26.68% |
| Can Fin Homes | 0.24% | -25.00% |
Unwinding of long positions was seen in these stocks on Wednesday, meaning a decline in both price and Open Interest:
| Stock | Price Change | OI Change |
| Laurus Labs | -1.77% | -44.42% |
| Grasim | -0.92% | -39.97% |
| Zydus Life | -1.77% | -33.45% |
| Wipro | -1.82% | -26.30% |
| Atul | -0.55% | -25.61% |
These are the stocks to watch out for ahead of Thursday's trading session:
First Published: Mar 27, 2024 7:57 PM IST
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