Trader's Diary: Correction in global market a wake-up call

I came, I saw, I conquered (veni, vidi, vici). Well, not really. The KVK report is out and that was to be the silver bullet for the economy. Really, it doesn't take rocket scientists to tell you that the economy was and continues to be in a bad place. Even the bulge bracket banks are only stating what should have been common knowledge. But if at least this focuses the attention to address the issues at hand, it would look like a victory. If like so much before it, this too becomes embroiled in politics and nepotism, even God can't help us.

That global leader board has experienced a correction (10% fall from recent highs) in just three days should be a wake-up call. That crude reacted to this earlier should have been a red flag, that USD stopped its decline and reversed course clearly pointed to an inflection point and yet, I continued to sit on the long call hoping for a miracle.

If anything comes out of this episode, let it be that excesses happen on both sides of the run, 7500 was an aberration just as 12400 was too. But, I'd venture to say that in the face of an eight quarter economic slowdown, before the pandemic was declared, 12400 was a lot more egregious "excess" and was as much a contributor to the swing to 7500 as any when the economic clock was force stopped. That we are in the midst of changing the battery to get the clock ticking again is evident, but this is going to take a long time to return to even the level of economic activity associated with the post slow down pre-pandemic levels. From there to aspire for real growth will need some serious intelligent planning, something that has been piecemeal at best.