It was Monday mayhem on Dalal Street as crude oil prices scaled a 14-year peak, as escalating geopolitical tensions shook global financial markets. Investors tracked updates on the Russia-Ukraine war closely.
The Nifty Bank entered bear territory, along with the Nifty Smallcap 100. The midcap index is now 19.9 percent from its peak -- almost in the bear zone.
What do the charts suggest for Dalal Street now?
The Nifty50 has formed a small body candle on the daily chart with a long lower shadow, suggesting the formation of a doji type pattern, according to Nagaraj Shetti, Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities.
Hopeful of a bounce in the 50-scrip benchmark in the near term, he said: "A decisive upside from here or from the lows could confirm a short-term bottom reversal."
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Nifty may not be out of the woods yet
The index has entered a crucial support zone around 15,900 and some rebounds can be expected in between as the market appears to be a bit oversold, Sameet Chavan, Chief Analyst-Technical and Derivatives at Angel One, told CNBCTV18.com.
"We do not want to jump to the conclusion immediately that the market is out of the woods. As of now, we are not expecting the Nifty to go below 15,500- 15,200 in the worst case scenario," he said.
Chavan suggests traders to avoid aggressive shorts and stay stock-specific, and investors to use the opportunity to start nibbling with a broader view. "We would like to adopt a ‘one step at a time’ strategy and focus on momentum-based trades during the day," he said.
Here are key things to know about the market before the March 8 session:
SGX Nifty
At 7:38 am on Tuesday, Singapore Exchange (SGX) Nifty futures -- an early indicator of the Nifty index -- were up 43.5 points or 0.3 percent at 15,799.5, suggesting a positive start ahead on Dalal Street.
Global markets
Equities in other Asian markets began the day in the red, after Ukraine and Russia failed to reach a deal on creating "humanitarian corridors" from affected cities. MSCI's broadest index of Asia Pacific shares outside Japan was down 0.2 percent at the last count.
Japan's Nikkei 225 was down 0.3 percent, China's Shanghai Composite 0.7 percent, South Korea's KOSPI 0.5 percent and Singapore's Straits Times 0.2 percent. Hong Kong's Hang Seng was up half a percent.
S&P 500 futures were up 0.3 percent. On Monday, the three main Wall Street indices suffered blows of 2.4-3.6 percent, with the Nasdaq Composite confirming it was in a bear market, as the prospect of a ban on oil imports from Russia sent crude prices soaring and fueled concerns about accelerating inflation.
What to expect on Dalal Street
HDFC Securities' Shetti believes Monday's last-hour recovery brings hopes of a pullback rally in the short term, though the Nifty50's trend remains negative. "A sustainable bounce is expected in the next few sessions," he said.
Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities, is also hopeful of a recovery in the near term. He believes further correction can be expected below lower-end support at 15,500, and sees resistance at 16,200.
Levels to watch out for
Chavan of Angel One sees immediate hurdles at 16,000 and 16,200, and immediate support at 15,700. "In case of any further escalation globally, we would see the Nifty entering the sacrosanct support zone of 15,500-15,200," he warned.
Mohit Nigam, Head-PMS at Hem Securities, pointed out the following levels:
| Index | Support | Resistance |
| Nifty50 | 15,700 | 16,200 |
| Nifty Bank | 32,400 | 35,000 |
FII/DII activity
Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) net sold Indian equities worth Rs 7,482.1 crore on Monday, according to provisional exchange data. However, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) made net purchases worth Rs 5,331 crore.
Call/put open interest
Exchange data shows the maximum call open interest is accumulated at 17,000, with 1.5 lakh contracts, and 17,500, with 1.2 lakh. On the other hand, the maximum put open interest is at the strike price of 15,000, with almost 61,000 contracts.
This suggests the Nifty still has a major hurdle to cross at 17,000 and meaningful support is far at 15,000.
Long build-up
Here are five stocks that saw an increase in open interest as well as price, suggesting build-up of long positions:
| Symbol | Current OI | CMP | Price change (%) | OI change (%) |
| ONGC | 2,57,95,000 | 182.3 | 12.22% | 28.72% |
| HINDALCO | 3,48,47,200 | 619 | 5.71% | 10.62% |
| IPCALAB | 8,60,850 | 975 | 2.02% | 9.25% |
| MRF | 76,240 | 65,494.55 | 0.13% | 8.13% |
| COALINDIA | 3,04,54,200 | 188.15 | 3.95% | 6.77% |
Long unwinding
| Symbol | Current OI | CMP | Price change (%) | OI change (%) |
| ABBOTINDIA | 32,225 | 17,459 | -0.07% | -2.48% |
| OBEROIRLTY | 19,91,500 | 790 | -6.76% | -1.76% |
| IEX | 4,07,51,250 | 208.15 | -1.42% | -0.75% |
| METROPOLIS | 7,60,000 | 1,883.80 | -0.73% | -0.63% |
| PAGEIND | 97,650 | 40,000 | -2.04% | -0.61% |
(Decrease in open interest as well as price)
Short-covering
| Symbol | Current OI | CMP | Price change (%) | OI change (%) |
| LTTS | 5,96,000 | 4,633.90 | 0.21% | -2.82% |
| BEL | 2,25,34,000 | 215.45 | 0.80% | -1.92% |
| INTELLECT | 5,60,250 | 685.25 | 0.38% | -1.20% |
| BIOCON | 1,75,55,900 | 330.5 | 0.46% | -1.01% |
| DIVISLAB | 25,64,200 | 4,099.95 | 0.11% | -0.66% |
(Increase in price and decrease in open interest)
Short build-up
| Symbol | Current OI | CMP | Price change (%) | OI change (%) |
| JKCEMENT | 2,77,900 | 2,339.30 | -10.76% | 16.69% |
| MARUTI | 29,61,100 | 6,791 | -6.48% | 13.93% |
| BANKBARODA | 9,71,21,700 | 93 | -7.60% | 13.56% |
| LT | 1,38,16,675 | 1,643.45 | -4.22% | 12.41% |
| IRCTC | 1,22,57,000 | 677.5 | -6.49% | 10.74% |
(Increase in open interest and decrease in price)
52-week highs
Two stocks in the BSE 500 universe hit 52-week highs: Hindalco and ONGC.
52-week lows
As many as 71 stocks on the BSE 500 hit 52-week lows, including HDFC, HDFC Bank, HDFC Life, HDFC AMC, Hero MotoCorp, Hindustan Unilever, Britannia, Dabur, Ashok Leyland, Hero MotoCorp, Eicher, HDFC Bank, Eicher, UltraTech, Dr Reddy's, Ashok Leyland, M&M, Britannia, Hindustan Unilever, ICICI Lombard, IGL and SpiceJet.
Fear gauge
The India VIX -- also known as the fear index -- finished the manic Monday up 4.9 percent at 29.3, though cooling off after jumping as much as 8.3 percent during the session.
(Edited by : Abhishek Jha)
First Published: Mar 7, 2022 7:48 PM IST
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