Indian equity benchmarks managed to finish yet another volatile session above the flatline on Monday, as investors tracked newsflow on the Russia-Ukraine crisis and awaited India's official GDP reading for Q3 of FY22.
Heightened geopolitical tensions kept the bulls on the back foot after new Western sanctions against Russia as it continued its invasion of Ukraine.
What do the charts suggest for Dalal Street now?
The Nifty50 has formed a long bullish candle on the daily chart in a broadly positive sign, but it will be interesting to see if it can hold above 16,750, according to Shrikant Chouhan, Head of Equity Research (Retail) at Kotak Securities.
"For traders, 16,600 would be the immediate support to watch out for, above which, the index could continue its momentum till 16,850-16,950 levels. However, a dismissal of 16,600 could possibly trigger one more correction wave till the 16,500-16,350 zone," he said.
Focus on quality
Mohit Nigam, Head-PMS at Hem Securities is of the view that persistent high volatility in the market is a good opportunity for investors to accumulate quality stocks on dips.
India VIX index -- also known as the fear index -- jumped 6.8 percent to settle at 28.6 on Monday as the market headed into a market holiday. Last week, Russia's invasion of Ukraine had sent the index roaring to levels last seen 20 months ago.
Here are key things to know about the market before the March 2 session:
SGX Nifty
At 7:31 am on Wednesday, Singapore Exchange (SGX) Nifty futures -- an early indicator of the Nifty index -- were down 141.5 points or 0.9 percent at 16,566.5, suggesting a gap-down opening ahead on Dalal Street.
Global markets
Equities in other Asian markets declined and oil rates surged to their highest since 2014. Concerns about the impact of aggressive sanctions against Russia over its invasion of Ukraine affected global market sentiment. MSCI's broadest index of Asia Pacific shares outside Japan was down 0.4 percent at the last count.
Japan's Nikkei 225 was down 1.9 percent, China's Shanghai Composite 0.5 percent and Hong Kong's Hang Seng 0.9 percent. South Korea's KOSPI was down 0.2 percent and Singapore's Straits Times 0.1 percent.
S&P 500 futures eked out a gain of 0.1 percent.
On Tuesday, the three main Wall Street indices fell 1.6-1.8 percent.
What to expect on Dalal Street
"Unless the Nifty takes out 16,800, which has turned into a hurdle from being crucial support, on a closing basis, consolidation can be witnessed in the short term," said Gaurav Ratnaparkhi, Head of Technical Research at Sharekhan by BNP Paribas.
On the other hand, once the index crosses 16,800 decisively, it can attempt a larger bounce towards 17,200, he added.
Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities, believes a recovery continues in the 50-scrip index as it has not broken 16,550 decisively.
He expects the index to continue to rise till 16,930-17,000 where once again selling pressure may be witnessed, and sees support in the 16,750-16,600 band.
Levels to watch out for
Rahul Sharma, co-founder of Equity99 Advisory, suggests adding stocks on major falls with strict stop losses given the high volatility.
He has identified the following levels:
Index | Strong support | Support 2 | Support 3 | Strong hurdle | Resistance 2 | Resistance 3 |
Nifty50 | 16,700 | 16,630 | 16,500 | 16,865 | 16,950 | 17,100 |
Nifty Bank | 36,000 | 35,880 | 35,600 | 36,300 | 36,500 | 36,800 |
He expects metal, IT, financial and fertiliser stocks to be in focus.
FII/DII activity
Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) net sold Indian equities worth Rs 3,948.5 crore on Monday, according to provisional exchange data. However, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) made net purchases of Rs 4,142.8 crore.
Call/put open interest
Exchange data shows the maximum call open interest is accumulated at the strike price of 17,500, with 1.5 lakh contracts, followed by 18,000, with almost one lakh contracts. On the other hand, the maximum put open interest is at 16,000, with around 81,800 contracts.
This suggests the Nifty faces a major hurdle at 17,500, and meaningful support remains at 16,000.
Long build-up
Here are five stocks that saw an increase in open interest as well as price, suggesting build-up of long positions:
Symbol | Current OI | CMP | Price change (%) | OI change (%) |
INTELLECT | 3,93,750 | 660 | 2.03% | 12.57% |
PVR | 23,09,318 | 1,636.85 | 2.40% | 12.53% |
HINDALCO | 3,36,48,575 | 571.3 | 7.12% | 12.18% |
AMBUJACEM | 1,80,97,500 | 309 | 1.96% | 10.82% |
MARICO | 88,37,000 | 511.7 | 3.18% | 9.92% |
Long unwinding
Symbol | Current OI | CMP | Price change (%) | OI change (%) |
ALKEM | 2,60,800 | 3,285.15 | -0.24% | -1.07% |
GLENMARK | 69,66,700 | 451.1 | -0.35% | -0.66% |
TVSMOTOR | 73,93,400 | 616.4 | -2.02% | -0.64% |
RAIN | 62,45,000 | 183.8 | -8.01% | -0.64% |
MARUTI | 25,33,600 | 8,314.25 | -0.57% | -0.44% |
(Decrease in open interest as well as price)
Short-covering
Symbol | Current OI | CMP | Price change (%) | OI change (%) |
GSPL | 11,33,900 | 287 | 2.57% | -7.50% |
ONGC | 2,74,27,400 | 159.2 | 0.70% | -7.27% |
GAIL | 2,86,09,000 | 142.6 | 8.40% | -6.87% |
APOLLOHOSP | 25,58,750 | 4,782.15 | 3.32% | -6.46% |
CROMPTON | 43,08,700 | 429.35 | 2.68% | -6.23% |
(Increase in price and decrease in open interest)
Short build-up
Symbol | Current OI | CMP | Price change (%) | OI change (%) |
BIOCON | 1,22,75,100 | 350.55 | -11.32% | 29.06% |
DALBHARAT | 5,20,750 | 1,564 | -0.99% | 13.83% |
BATAINDIA | 13,22,750 | 1,817.60 | -0.57% | 11.27% |
NESTLEIND | 3,26,275 | 17,655.10 | -0.51% | 9.37% |
HDFCLIFE | 2,56,27,800 | 523.85 | -2.73% | 8.69% |
(Increase in open interest and decrease in price)
52-week highs
Three stocks in the BSE 500 pack hit 52-week highs: Hindalco, Fine Organic and Narayana Hrudayalaya.
52-week lows
As many as 20 stocks hit 52-week lows, including Hindustan Unilever, Dr Reddy's, Britannia, HDFC Life, ICICI Lombarg General, Aegis Logistics, Mahindra Logistics, Berger Paints, Ramco Cements, Heidelberg Cement, Kansai Nerolac, Indigo Paints, Edelweiss Financial, Thyrocare and Jubilant Pharmova.
(Edited by : Abhishek Jha)
First Published: Mar 1, 2022 8:19 PM IST
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