Indian equity benchmarks extended gains to a second straight day on Wednesday, with the Nifty50 less than five points shy of 16,350, helped by broad-based gains. Investors globally assessed the impact of the United States' decision to ban imports of Russian oil over Moscow's invasion of Ukraine.
Back home, news that international flights will resume from March 27 boosted unlock theme stocks. All eyes are now on results of Assembly elections in five states -- UP, Punjab, Uttarakhand, Manipur and Goa, which will set the tone for the 2024 Lok Sabha polls. Counting of votes begins at 8 am. Catch CNBC-TV18.com's coverage of Assembly elections
What do the charts suggest for Dalal Street now?
The Nifty50 has formed a long bull candle on the daily chart, reflecting a sharp upside reversal from the lows, according to Nagaraj Shetti, Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities.
The index now faces a hurdle at 16,450-16,500 levels, a sustainable move above which can take it towards next key resistance in the 16,800-17,000 zone, he said.
All hunky-dory unless Nifty breaks 15,980
One can expect a sharp contraction in the volatility index only after the announcement of election results on Thursday, the day of the weekly F&O expiry, said Shrikant Chouhan, Head of Equity Research (Retail) at Kotak Securities.
"Once past 16,420, the Nifty may continue to 16,480-16,600 levels, but a close below 15,980 will be negative for the market," he said.
Here are key things to know about the market before the March 10 session:
SGX Nifty
At 7:06 am on Thursday, Singapore Exchange Nifty futures -- an early indicator of the Nifty index -- were up 279.5 points or 1.7 percent at 16,624.5, having risen as much as 292 points earlier in the day.
Global markets
Equities in other Asian markets clocked strong gains after days of weakness fuelled by concerns about the Russia-Ukraine war. Ukraine and Russia looked to resume diplomatic talks and the UAE said it supports hiking oil output to ease wild swings in energy markets. Crude oil prices cooled off, with Brent retreating nearly 15 percent from Wednesday's high of $132 a barrel.
MSCI's broadest index of Asia Pacific shares outside Japan was up 1.3 percent at the last count.
Japan's Nikkei 225 was up 3.4 percent, and China's Shanghai Composite and Hong Kong's Hang Seng 1.8 percent each. South Korea's KOSPI was up 2.1 percent and Singapore's Straits Times 1.4 percent.
S&P 500 futures edged 0.1 percent lower. On Wednesday, the three main Wall Street indices surged 2-3.6 percent.
What to expect on Dalal Street
HDFC Securities' Shetti believes the 50-scrip index has reversed its short-term trend to positive. He sees a possibility of the Nifty moving towards important resistance at 16,800 in the next few sessions, with immediate support in the 16,200-16,150 band.
Echoing similar views, independent technical analyst Manish Shah said one can expect bullish market momentum in the next couple of days, when the index should rally to 16,750-16,800 levels provided the geopolitical situation remains steady.
A decline to support at 16,100-16,180 should be viewed as a buying opportunity, he said.
Levels to watch out for
Choice Broking AVP-Research Sachin Gupta pointed out the following levels:
| Index | Support | Resistance |
| Nifty50 | 16,200/16,000 | 16,770 |
| Nifty Bank | 33,200 | 34,500 |
FII/DII activity
Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) net sold Indian equities worth Rs
4,818.7 crore on Wednesday, according to provisional exchange data. However, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) made net purchases worth Rs 3,275.9 crore.
Call/put open interest
Exchange data shows the maximum call open interest is accumulated at 17,000, with 1.9 lakh contracts, and 16,800, with 1.1 lakh contracts. On the other hand, the maximum put open interest is at the strike price of 15,500, with 1.1 lakh contracts, and the next highest at 16,000, with close to 94,000 contracts.
This suggests the Nifty faces a major hurdle at 16,800 before Mount 17,000, and meaningful support is some 345 points below at 16,000.
Long build-up
Here are five stocks that saw an increase in open interest as well as price, suggesting build-up of long positions:
| Symbol | Current OI | CMP | Price change (%) | OI change (%) |
| GSPL | 14,92,600 | 269.65 | 0.13% | 26.42% |
| GUJGASLTD | 28,97,500 | 532.85 | 1.71% | 18.94% |
| APLLTD | 15,75,700 | 728.5 | 1.30% | 17.59% |
| AXISBANK | 4,77,43,200 | 679.75 | 1.32% | 16.40% |
| MFSL | 14,32,600 | 778.95 | 0.32% | 15.20% |
Long unwinding
| Symbol | Current OI | CMP | Price change (%) | OI change (%) |
| UPL | 2,39,12,200 | 726.1 | -0.07% | -0.64% |
| MGL | 33,72,000 | 762 | -0.03% | -0.28% |
| NMDC | 6,41,72,600 | 152.25 | -0.36% | -0.24% |
(Decrease in open interest as well as price)
Short-covering
| Symbol | Current OI | CMP | Price change (%) | OI change (%) |
| CUB | 1,07,44,000 | 120.85 | 2.81% | -11.42% |
| INDUSTOWER | 2,27,72,400 | 213.1 | 4.15% | -6.92% |
| INTELLECT | 5,73,750 | 725.4 | 1.65% | -6.01% |
| IRCTC | 1,32,62,375 | 735.2 | 5.95% | -4.51% |
| PVR | 30,13,021 | 1,652 | 3.11% | -4.08% |
(Increase in price and decrease in open interest)
Short build-up
| Symbol | Current OI | CMP | Price change (%) | OI change (%) |
| COFORGE | 4,81,900 | 4,591.60 | -4.57% | 24.92% |
| SHREECEM | 2,09,875 | 22,036.70 | -1.33% | 21.99% |
| ONGC | 2,67,96,000 | 172.85 | -2.29% | 21.09% |
| ATUL | 96,375 | 8,920 | -1.59% | 13.93% |
| GAIL | 2,31,25,100 | 151.4 | -2.10% | 12.35% |
(Increase in open interest and decrease in price)
52-week highs
Two stocks in the BSE 500 universe hit 52-week highs: GNFC and Lemontree.
52-week lows
JK Cement was the only stock in the broadest index on the bourse to have hit a 52-week low.
Fear gauge
The India VIX -- known in market parlance as the fear index -- eased 3.9 percent to settle at 27.5 on Wednesday. Last month, Russia's move to invade Ukraine had sent the index soaring to a 20-month high.
(Edited by : Abhishek Jha)
First Published: Mar 9, 2022 6:53 PM IST
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