Indian equity benchmarks ended a volatile session on Wednesday marginally lower, as losses in financial shares outweighed gains in IT, auto and metal shares. That was as investors awaited the outcome of the US central bank's policy meeting for clues on tapering of stimulus and future interest rates in the world's largest economy.
So, what do the charts suggest for Dalal Street?
The 50-scrip benchmark formed a small negative candle on the daily chart with minor upper and lower shadows, according to Nagaraj Shetti, Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities.
"Technically, this pattern signals a breather after a fine bounce from the lows. Such formations more often act as an uptrend continuation sign," he said.
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"Wednesday's price activity is a clear indication that market participants are waiting for the outcome of the Fed policy... Since there is a penultimate weekly expiry in our market as well (due on Thursday), we may see higher volatility," said Sameet Chavan, Chief Analyst-Technical and Derivatives at Angel Broking.
"We continue to remain cautious on the market and advise against creating aggressive bets for a while. In order to regain confidence, another couple of days’ strength is quite crucial," he said.
Here are key things to know about the market before Thursday's session:
SGX Nifty
At 8:27 am on Thursday, Nifty futures trading on Singapore Exchange -- an early indicator of India's Nifty50 benchmark index -- were up 100.5 points or 0.6 percent at 17,653.5, signalling a strong opening ahead on Dalal Street.
Global markets
Equities in other Asian markets rose on Thursday after the Federal Reserve took a hawkish tilt overnight. The US central bank said it would likely begin reducing its monthly bond purchases as soon as November, and signalled interest rate increases may follow more quickly than expected. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan gained 0.6 percent.
However, investors remained on edge about Evergrande's future, with a major test to come later on Thursday when $83.5 million in dollar-bond interest payments are due. S&P 500 E-Mini futures were up 0.2 percent in early Asian trade, suggesting a positive start in the US on Thursday.
What to expect on Dalal Street
On Thursday, level of 17,610-17,650 would be seen as an immediate hurdle, whereas a a break below 17,500 would result in retesting of the 17,400-17,350 band, according to Chavan.
He expects key support at 17,350-17,250 from a short-term perspective.
Key levels to watch out for
Nifty50: "Initially, the market would follow the trading range between 17,660 and 17,300 on Thursday. Above 17,660, the index would enter a breakout formation which would lift the market to 17,800-17,900 levels," said Shrikant Chouhan, Head-Equity Research (Retail) at Kotak Securities.
Below 17,300, the index would gradually fall to 17,100-16,900 levels, he said.
Bank Nifty: Strong resistance for the banking index is placed between 37,400 and 37,500 levels. A surge to 38,100 is not ruled out if Bank Nifty crosses the 37,500 mark, he said.
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FII/DII activity
Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) withdrew a net Rs 1,943.3 crore from the Indian capital market on Wednesday. However, domestic institutional investors saved the day, making net purchases of Rs 1,850 crore, exchange data showed.
Call/put open interest
There is a high degree of call open interest at the strike prices of 17,600 and 17,800. On the other hand, the maximum put open interest is concentrated at the 17,500 mark, followed by 17,200, NSE data shows. This suggests that immediate resistance can be expected at 17,600, followed by 17,800, and support comes in at 17,500.
Long build-up
Here are five stocks that saw an increase in open interest as well as price, suggesting a build-up of long positions:
Symbol | Current OI | CMP | Price change (%) | OI change (%) |
STAR | 17,07,750 | 625.15 | 6.43% | 19.88% |
CUMMINSIND | 20,14,200 | 1,027.70 | 3.57% | 19.78% |
APOLLOTYRE | 1,12,42,500 | 233.2 | 6% | 16.86% |
BALKRISIND | 13,68,000 | 2,712 | 6.69% | 16.14% |
ABFRL | 95,60,200 | 215.45 | 6.61% | 13.08% |
Long unwinding
Symbol | Current OI | CMP | Price change (%) | OI change (%) |
IDEA | 55,17,40,000 | 10.45 | -4.13% | -3.11% |
ONGC | 4,90,18,200 | 134 | -1% | -3.08% |
INDIGO | 43,45,000 | 2,193 | -2.24% | -2.35% |
DEEPAKNTR | 25,11,500 | 2,425.60 | -0.32% | -1.41% |
BAJFINANCE | 43,77,625 | 7,790 | -0.44% | -1.16% |
(Decrease in open interest and price)
Short-covering
Symbol | Current OI | CMP | Price change (%) | OI change (%) |
NAVINFLUOR | 6,79,950 | 3,882.95 | 0.15% | -6.29% |
HAL | 17,78,400 | 1,360.90 | 0.25% | -5.40% |
ZEEL | 4,66,05,000 | 334 | 29.91% | -4.45% |
UBL | 14,44,800 | 1,634.40 | 2.09% | -3.49% |
LICHSGFIN | 1,58,60,000 | 431.7 | 5.68% | -3.33% |
(Decrease in open interest and increase in price)
Short build-up
Symbol | Current OI | CMP | Price change (%) | OI change (%) |
ADANIPORTS | 8,53,03,750 | 745.75 | -0.79% | 21.96% |
TORNTPOWER | 33,00,000 | 491 | -0.05% | 14.18% |
ICICIGI | 21,43,275 | 1,623.25 | -0.81% | 6.88% |
GODREJCP | 47,37,000 | 1,062 | -1.96% | 6.23% |
CHOLAFIN | 1,12,08,750 | 571.9 | -1.44% | 5.01% |
(Increase in open interest and decrease in price)
Stocks hitting 52-week highs
ITC, Tech Mahindra, HCL Tech, Bajaj Finserv, Bajaj Finance, NTPC, IndiGo, ICICI Lombard GI, L&T Technology Services, L&T Infotech, Mindtree, Mphasis, Indian Hotels, PVR, Inox Leisure and Zee Entertainment were among the 40 stocks in the BSE 500 index — the broadest gauge on the stock exchange — that clocked 52-week highs. JSW Energy, Persistent, Pidilite, Sunteck, DLF, Godrej Properties, UBL, Oil India, Allcargo, Brigade, Coforge, GMR Infra, Birlasoft and Can Fin Homes also hit the milestone.
52-week lows
No stock in the BSE 500 universe hit a 52-week low. Apart from that, Suvidhaa Infoserve and Premier Capital Services were among the few stocks that hit the trough.
Volatility gauge
NSE's India VIX index -- which gauges the expectation of volatility in the near term -- settled marginally lower at 16.5 on Wednesday, having risen as much as 2.1 percent to 16.9 during the session.
(Edited by : Abhishek Jha)
First Published: Sept 22, 2021 7:09 PM IST
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