It was a wild day for Dalal Street investors as geopolitical tensions after Russia's ordering of troops into eastern Ukraine sent jitters across global markets. Indian equity benchmarks -- Sensex and Nifty50 -- however recovered a majority of their intraday losses by the end of a session that saw them tumbling by more than two percent each. Catch latest from CNBC-TV18's coverage of Russia-Ukraine conflict
What do the charts suggest for Dalal Street now?
The Nifty50 has formed a long bull candle on the daily chart, suggesting a comeback by the bulls from lower levels, according to Nagaraj Shetti, Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities.
It once again held crucial lower support at 16,800. "This could be a minor positive for the bulls," he said. (Key factors hurting the market)
Volatility
There is no immediate relief on the Russia-Ukriane front, and rising oil prices have added to negativity in the markets, said Siddhartha Khemka, Head-Retail Research at Motilal Oswal Financial Services. He expects the F&O expiry, due on February 24, to keep volatility intact.
Volatility gauge VIX rose 16.4 percent to 26.7 -- its highest closing level since February 26, 2021.
"The Nifty has managed to close above the crucial 17,000 mark for now, with 16,800 being key support for the past one month. However, global weakness and consistent FII selling could add to pressure in the near term," he said.
Here are key things to know about the market before the February 23 session:
SGX Nifty
At 7:38 am on Wednesday, Singapore Exchange (SGX) Nifty futures -- an early indicator of the Nifty index -- were up 82 points or 0.5 percent at 17,220.5, suggesting a positive start ahead on Dalal Street.
Global markets
Equities in other Asian markets were mixed as investors tracked updates on the Russia-Ukraine situation closely, after Russian troop movements near Ukraine and initial Western sanctions. MSCI's broadest index of Asia Pacific shares outside Japan was up 0.1 percent at the last count.
Japan's Nikkei 225 was down 1.7 percent and Singapore's Straits Times 0.6 percent. China's Shanghai Composite was up 0.3 percent, Hong Kong's Hang Seng 0.7 percent and South Korea's KOSPI 0.2 percent.
Crude oil was slightly off a seven-year peak scaled on Tuesday.
S&P 500 futures were up 0.5 percent, in a positive sign for Wall Street.
On Tuesday, the three main us indices closed 1-1.4 percent lower, with the S&P 500 confirming it was in a correction for the first time since the 2020 slump in equities triggered by the coronavirus pandemic.
What to expect on Dalal Street
HDFC Securities' Shetti believes the Nifty's near-term trend remains weak. "One may expect a minor bounce in Wednesday's session or from slightly lower levels... One may expect the index to tumble again from the highs of 17,300-17,400 levels in the next few sessions," he said.
A decisive break down below 16,800 could lead to a fresh fall in the Nifty50, otherwise choppiness will continue, according to Ajit Mishra, VP-Research at Religare Broking.
He reiterates his cautious view and suggests limiting leveraged positions.
Levels to watch out for
Mohit Nigam, Head-PMS at Hem Securities, has identified the following levels:
| Index | Resistance | Support |
| Nifty50 | 17,400 | 16,800 |
| Nifty Bank | 38,000 | 36,500 |
FII/DII activity
Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) net sold Indian equities worth Rs
3,245.5 crore on Tuesday, according to provisional exchange data. However, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) made net purchases of Rs 4,108.6 crore.
Call/put open interest
Exchange data shows the maximum call open interest is accumulated at the strike price of 18,000, with 1.7 lakh contracts, followed by 17,500, with 1.5 lakh contracts. On the other hand, the maximum put open interest is at 17,000, with 1.3 lakh contracts.
This suggests the Nifty has immediate resistance at 17,500 followed by a major at 18,000, and meaningful support at 17,000.
Long build-up
Here are five stocks that saw an increase in open interest as well as price, suggesting a build-up of long positions:
| Symbol | Current OI | CMP | Price change (%) | OI change (%) |
| M&M | 93,26,100 | 855.5 | 1.54% | 27.55% |
| APOLLOHOSP | 18,32,875 | 4,599 | 3.84% | 23.24% |
| MPHASIS | 10,82,725 | 3,126 | 2.14% | 22.61% |
| HAVELLS | 30,17,000 | 1,200.15 | 0.01% | 18.13% |
| ONGC | 2,33,69,500 | 164.65 | 0.58% | 17.99% |
Long unwinding
| Symbol | Current OI | CMP | Price change (%) | OI change (%) |
| RAMCOCEM | 10,13,200 | 821.45 | -0.47% | -28.27% |
| M&MFIN | 1,83,80,000 | 151.5 | -1.53% | -28.18% |
| TATACHEM | 51,30,000 | 870.35 | -0.61% | -23.33% |
| MANAPPURAM | 1,80,81,000 | 117.95 | -0.25% | -20.56% |
| PETRONET | 1,05,27,000 | 207.55 | -0.65% | -18.61% |
(Decrease in open interest as well as price)
Short-covering
| Symbol | Current OI | CMP | Price change (%) | OI change (%) |
| HDFCAMC | 18,48,600 | 2,179.90 | 0.53% | -28.76% |
| NAVINFLUOR | 2,96,100 | 3,850 | 0.69% | -28.72% |
| LTTS | 4,96,800 | 4,436.35 | 1.97% | -21.62% |
| L&TFH | 5,26,78,372 | 70 | 0.14% | -20.65% |
| METROPOLIS | 8,62,000 | 2,043.95 | 3.56% | -20.02% |
(Increase in price and decrease in open interest)
Short build-up
| Symbol | Current OI | CMP | Price change (%) | OI change (%) |
| SIEMENS | 10,26,300 | 2,409.75 | -0.46% | 40.19% |
| MARICO | 55,92,000 | 504.15 | -0.52% | 29.65% |
| INDIGO | 21,60,750 | 2,062.55 | -0.98% | 27.49% |
| ABB | 2,95,000 | 2,060 | -1.92% | 24.92% |
| LT | 1,09,15,800 | 1,841.45 | -1.12% | 20.91% |
(Increase in open interest and decrease in price)
52-week highs
Only one stock in the BSE 500 basket managed to hit a 52-week peak: Cholamandalam Investment.
52-week lows
As many as 69 stocks hit 52-week lows on the broadest index on the bourse, including SBI Cards, ICICI Lombard, Indiabulls Housing, DCB Bank, Apollo Tyres, CEAT, Castrol, Engineers India, Dilip Buildcon, MRF, Strides Pharma, Sequent, Whirlpool, Manappuram, MCX, Granules and Indigo Paints.
(Edited by : Abhishek Jha)
First Published: Feb 22, 2022 7:28 PM IST
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