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Sensex, Nifty extend gains ahead of GDP data: Russia-Ukraine war, other key factors impacting market

Russia-Ukraine war: The Sensex and the Nifty50 rebounded in the second half of the session on Monday, shrugging off weakness across other Asian markets as newsflow on the Russia-Ukraine conflict kept investors on the back foot.

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By Sandeep Singh  Feb 28, 2022 4:26:28 PM IST (Updated)

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Sensex, Nifty extend gains ahead of GDP data: Russia-Ukraine war, other key factors impacting market
It was a wild day for Dalal Street investors on Monday as headline indices made a smart recovery in the second half of the session, shrugging off weakness across most global markets. The 30-scrip index bounced back 1,413.8 points from the lowest levels of the day to settle at 56,247.3, and the broader Nifty50 benchmark came within inches of the 16,800 mark at the close, having sunk below 16,400 during the session.

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The 30-scrip index gyrated 1,491 points during the session, which began with a gap-down opening, amid nervousness among investors globally amid heightened geopolitical tensions, after the West imposed tough new sanctions on Russia for its invasion of Ukraine
The India VIX - known in market parlance as the fear index - rose 6.8 percent to end at 28.6, after surging as much as 11.4 percent during the session.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky agreed on Sunday to have officials take part in talks with Russia “without preconditions”, even as Russian President Vladimir Putin further escalated tensions by placing his nuclear forces on alert.
On the domestic front, analysts awaited official data on India's gross domestic product (GDP) for more clarity on the pace of economic recovery from the pandemic lows.
Here are some key factors impacting the market now:
  • Geopolitical tensions: Investors assessed newsflow on the Russia-Ukraine conflict closely. Russian President Vladimir Putin put his country's nuclear deterrent on high alert amid escalating sanctions against Russia over its invasion of Ukraine. Bank of Russia raises the key interest rate to 20 percent from 9.5 percent and banned foreigners from selling Russian securities.
  • Crude oil prices: Crude oil jumped on Monday amid rising geopolitical uncertainty. Benchmark Brent futures surged as much as 7.6 percent to $101.3 per barrel, and WTI futures as much as eight percent to $98.9 a barrel.
  • Assembly Elections 2022: Polling is underway for the first phase of assembly elections in Manipur. Talks are already on for likely scenarios post-results in the states that have voted.
  • FII outflows: As of February 25, FIIs have so far this month net sold Indian shares worth Rs 41,771.6 crore though DIIs made net purchases of Rs 37,941.3 crore, provisional exchange data shows. February is likely to be the fifth straight month of FII outflows, which have been one of the major factors preventing headline indices from revisiting their all-time highs touched in October 2021.
  • Fear of aggressive monetary policy normalisation: Investors globally have been closely monitoring inflation readings from major economies and central bank commentaries to assess the timeline and magnitude of long-impending hikes in key rates from COVID-era lows.
  • Accelerating inflation: Surging consumer prices are among the main cause of the Fed's hawkish tone. Businesses across industries in India and around the globe have been struggling against rising raw material rates.
  • High equity valuations: Many experts have time and again flagged expensive valuations of Indian equities. Foreign brokerages as well as the RBI have raised concern over sky-high valuations.
  • COVID: Though the worst of the pandemic appears to be behind, investors have been waiting eagerly for signs of recovery from the pandemic lows. Official GDP numbers due later on February 28 are a key monitorable to assess the pace of recovery from pandemic lows.
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