In the Union Budget 2020, the central government announced several reforms in the oil and gas sector including an increase in petroleum subsidies and expansion in the gas grid. The reforms are expected to give a fresh fillip to gas transmission companies and city gas distributors.
One of the key reforms for the gas space this year was the government proposing to expand the gas pipeline network from 16,200 km to 27,000 km. This would hugely benefit stocks such as GAIL, Gujarat Gas, Indraprastha Gas, and Mahanagar Gas Ltd.
Other key triggers for the oil transmission space this year are the inclusion of gas in GST, a 50 percent cut in domestic gas prices and a change in unified tariff regime. Further reforms on gas space will be undertaken to facilitate transparent price discovery and ease of transactions.
In the last one year, all gas transmission stocks reported a good rally. Gujarat Gas climbed the most, by 145 percent followed by IGL (+85 percent), Adani Gas (+72 percent) and MGL (+37 percent).
Along with the rally in share prices, the gas transmission stocks have quite evidently also performed well in their earnings too. Except for GAIL, IGL in its Q3 earnings reported a 43 percent jump in its third-quarter net profit on the rise in gas sales volumes. Mahanagar Gas also posted net profit growth of 25 percent YoY. Adani Gas saw its profit doubling to Rs 114 crore on account of higher demand for CNG and PNG.
Meanwhile, India’s gas consumption rose 5 percent YoY in November 2019. Benign gas consumption trends suggest QoQ volume declines for GAIL. YoY demand growth for city gas (IGL/MGL/Gujarat Gas) remains healthy for Q3FY20, said CLSA.
While, Motilal Oswal in its report said, “Since the expansion plan of the gas grid is long-awaited, its roadmap remains unclear. Also, transparent pricing is necessary for higher utilisation of the gas grid. PNGRB is already working on developing a national gas trading exchange.”
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