Lockdown in developing countries like India could be a greater threat than the virus itself, said Christopher Wood, Global Head of Equity Strategy at Jefferies. Wood hopes that the lockdown in the country ends on May 3.
“If people start to fear that this lockdown in activity will continue into the next quarter, then markets will retest old lows. So, it is all about the duration of the virus, health crisis, and when governments relax activity,” said Wood.
“This risk of recession reality is driven by the action of governments. So, if the governments want to end the recession, they just need to unlock the activity,” he added.
On the financials, Wood said, “Private sector remains a great long-term growth story be it insurance or banks. My near-term concern though is consumer lending cycle because that has been a great story and clearly the Indian economy was already weak when we entered this health crisis. So, I am just concerned near term about consumer lending and so the longer the lockdown continues, the bigger the risk on that side of things.”