homemarket NewsRising COVID cases will be a worry for Indian economy and market, says Ashmore's Ashwini Agarwal

Rising COVID cases will be a worry for Indian economy and market, says Ashmore's Ashwini Agarwal

Ashwini Agarwal, Co-Founder and Partner at Ashmore Investment Management believes the market is worried about the rising COVID-19 cases and if it leads to another cycle of non-performing loans (NPLs) formation.

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By Latha Venkatesh   | Sonia Shenoy   | Anuj Singhal  Mar 23, 2021 5:30:45 PM IST (Updated)

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Ashwini Agarwal, Co-Founder and Partner at Ashmore Investment Management believes the market is worried about the rising COVID-19 cases and if it leads to another cycle of non-performing loans (NPLs) formation.

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“One has to see how this plays out - whether COVID-19 actually takes a second crack at the formation of NPLs,” he said.
“Some wobble is possible if COVID-19 cases expand to a point where migrants may not be able to come back or maybe they are willing to come back. The COVID-19 numbers especially in Maharashtra and Mumbai are worrying but the virulence this time around is much lower. So one has to see how this plays out,” he added.
He expects to see a higher US bond yield and a weak US dollar.
“Both the changes depend upon what the US secretary does. Last week they issued very dovish statements but the action has to follow suit in the sense that it will continue to support the markets by buying treasury yields and treasury bonds more than what their programme is,” he said.
According to him, as the economy revives, the demand for a four-wheeler will come back quite strongly. In terms of demand for autos, he stated, “There was a tectonic shift in favour of personal mobility at the start of COVID-19 and I think people continue to look for solutions there. In the four-wheelers market, demand has been tepid for a few years now and with interest rates being where they are, one hopes that one will see a revival. COVID-19 related buying would be probably done but what might encourage people to look at autos is the fact that the replacement cycle has become a lot longer than what it used to be. As the economy revives, my sense is demand for four-wheeler will come back quite strongly.”
He likes both general and life insurance companies.
“The business outlook for both life and general insurance is quite strong, the market is still relatively underpenetrated - more underpenetrated in general and less underpenetrated in life. To that extent, these are great long-term stories and by and large, these are great quality companies," he pointed out.
For more, watch the video…

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