Maruti Suzuki share price target at ₹14,500? Analysts see company's market share significantly rising

The stock opened a percent higher in Monday's trade. Shares of Maruti Suzuki India have gained 24% since the beginning of this year, while the S&P BSE Sensex is up 4% during this period.

Maruti Suzuki India posted a strong EBIT (earnings before interest and taxes) margin beat in the July-September period; its margin improved 400 basis points quarter-on-quarter to 10.8% as against 9.1% estimate.

While second quarter margin reflects all the positives and no negative, analysts at Motilal Oswal expect some of these positives to slow down in the third quarter.

The brokerage has also upgraded its earnings estimates for FY24 and FY25. Motilal has raised its FY24 and FY25 earnings per share (EPS) by 10% and 6%, respectively, to factor in better gross margin and higher other income as it factors in the share swap for Suzuki Motor Gujarat (SMG) instead of cash outflows.

Going ahead, Nuvama forecasts compounded revenue of 12%, driven by moderate growth in cars and robust growth in SUVs on the back of successful launches. Furthermore, better net pricing and scale shall boost profitability, driving compound profit of 24%.

Arihant Capital finds the Maruti Suzuki stock worth ₹12,206. "We expect revenue, margins and PAT to grow in the coming quarters on the back of better product mix, lower RM cost and better operating leverage. We value MSIL at 23 times September 2025 EPS to arrive at a target price (TP) of ₹12,341," said analysts at Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities.

According to Citi, the company management noted that the demand is stable, with festive season volumes expected to rise almost 18% year-on-year. FY24 volume growth guidance is 5% for industry, it said.

"So far, festive season growth (from Onam to Navratri) has grown at 16% while rural growth has outpaced urban. UVs have done better than hatchbacks, owing to pending order book, ramp-up in production and greater replacement demand," Nuvama said in a note.

Stable growth in domestic passenger vehicles and a favorable product lifecycle augur well for Maruti Suzuki. Analysts expect market share gains and margin recovery in FY24 vis-à-vis FY23. "These would be fueled by an improvement in supplies, a favorable product lifecycle, healthy mix, and operating leverage."

Maruti Suzuki remains the undisputed leader in the non-SUV space with a market share of over 60% in FY23. "We expect this share to sustain owing to its strong brand and wide distribution network, not to mention low competitive intensity," Nuvama said.

Recent launches such as Grand Vitara, Fronx, Jimny and Invicto have received a positive response. Hence, as per Nuvama, MSIL's UV (including MPV) market share shall rise from 19% in FY23 to 30% in FY26, pushing up its total PV market share from 43% in FY23 to 45% in FY26.