Jahangir Aziz pegs oil at $83/bbl, with an eye on geopolitical developments
In a chat with CNBC-TV18, Jahangir Aziz of JPMorgan said geopolitics or the impact of geopolitics on oil prices is a tail risk rather than a baseline.
JPMorgan predicts oil prices at $83 per barrel for the year, with a note of caution about the effects of geopolitical unrest.
In a discussion with CNBC-TV18, Jahangir Aziz, Global Head-EM Economics at JPMorgan, said that looking at the demand-supply dynamics, the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) would need to make significant cuts for the oil prices to mirror this year's trends, and he does not see this as a base case.
"Without OPEC cutting, oil prices look around $85-86/bbl in the first half and closer to $80/bbl in the second half when the global economy slows, the US slows much more materially. So, for the year as a whole, we are looking at $83/bbl. However, geopolitics can turn that upside down, but so far, it's been well contained."
Analysts expect the OPEC and allied producers including Russia (OPEC+) to consider extending or even deepening oil supply cuts into next year at the upcoming meeting on November 26.
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"...to us, geopolitics or the impact of geopolitics on oil prices is a tail risk rather than a baseline, and our baseline is that, as an average, we will probably do somewhere in the low 80s, " Aziz noted.
In October, Moody's Investors Services predicted crude oil prices to average $85 a barrel for the rest of the year.
"Over the longer term, we might see that there is more downside pressure on oil as opposed to upside pressure. But there is also a supply side that is getting quite volatile I would say with OPEC cutting down its production and Russian crude continues to be uncertain in terms of availability," Vikash Halan, Associate Managing Director of Corporate Finance at Moody's told CNBC-TV18.
In Asian trading on Wednesday, November 22, oil prices stayed mostly steady, balancing the expected increase in US crude inventories against the anticipated supply reductions from OPEC+ producers. The US government data on stockpiles is due later today (November 22).
Brent crude futures inched up by 11 cents to $82.56 a barrel, and US West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose by 14 cents to $77.91. Both benchmarks have fallen for four straight weeks, and investors remained cautious ahead of the scheduled OPEC+ meeting.
However, even if the OPEC+ nations extend their cuts into next year, the global oil market will see a slight supply surplus in 2024, the head of the International Energy Agency's (IEA) oil markets and industry division said.
(with inputs from Reuters)
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(Edited by : Shweta Mungre)
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