The bulls have just marched on and on this month despite the shakeout in the broader market and on Friday, the Nifty completed its expected move to 16,500 with erstwhile laggards like TCS and HDFC Bank leading the charge. In fact, this month has belonged to the forgotten large caps with HDFC twins, TCS, Kotak and Reliance taking leadership once again.
This morning, the SGX Nifty is indicating a dip as the Asian markets are down and the global market might be a bit worried about the Afghan situation. From the market point of view, this is a non-event and I expect the dip to be bought at some point during the day.
The Nifty is going through a big expansion after breaking past the 15,500-15,900 range in which it was stuck for a month. There is big money waiting on the sidelines and hence dips and consolidations on Nifty do not last long.
A lot of questions are being raised on the broader market's underperformance this month. The Nifty is up nearly 5 percent this month while the midcap index is down 0.8 percent and the small cap index is down 3 percent.
I want to make two points on this: 1) It would be wrong to look at this month in isolation. This year, the small cap index is up 44 percent vs 18 percent for the Nifty. Yes, you read it right. So, this mainly is a correction after a massive run. 2) This is not a bear market but a bull market and hence even the broader market will move on once the shakeout is over but it will be tough to time it.
Finally, keep an eye on metals -- there are multiple upgrades on Tata Steel after the concall and it looks like the cycle has still more upside left before you see peak earnings.
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