The rupee falls six paise to 82.31 vs the US dollar on Tuesday. The dollar index — which measures the American currency against the yen, the pound, the Canadian dollar, the Swedish krona, the Swiss franc and the euro — was last trading 0.1 percent higher at 102.5.
Crude oil benchmarks gained on Thursday. At the last count Brent crude futures were trading 0.2 percent higher at $83.3 per barrel. WTI futures, too, were trading 0.2 percent higher at $79.6 per barrel.
"Sentiments will flip again as we hold the belief that this recent shift in sentiment will be short-lived, likely lasting for the next 3-4 days. The market is not expected to undergo a comparable downturn akin to the events of 2011, as most major US financial contracts are now backed by its government. Thus, risk-off-based demand in US DXY is likely to decline and thus index could find resistance near the 102.50-103 zone," said Amit Pabari of CR Forex.
"On the domestic side, data or economic situation have been above the global average. Additionally, RBI will surely launch a “Recovery Mission” and sell dollars as Rupee stepped into the radar zone of 82.60-82.90. Mind it, a close below 82.50 will confirm the reversal in the pair. Overall, we expect that the USDINR pair should top near the 82.70-90 zone and make a reversal towards 82.20-82.00 levels again," Pabari added.
According to a Reuters poll, rupee will trade in a narrow range over the coming three months and then strengthen slightly in a year as the Reserve Bank of India uses its vast foreign exchange reserves to keep the currency stable.
The July 31-Aug 2 survey of 45 FX strategists forecast the rupee will remain largely unchanged at 82.00 to the dollar by end-October and strengthen about one percent to 81.67 in six months.
It was trading around 82.58 on Wednesday.
Forecasts for the three-month period ranged from 80.67/dollar to 83.80/dollar, only slightly wider than the 80.88 to 82.95 range seen so far this year.
(With inputs from Reuters)
First Published: Aug 3, 2023 9:14 AM IST
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