Rupee flat, forward premiums up on rising US Fed rate cut bets

While "sentiments favour rupee bulls," the local unit is unlikely to see meaningful gains and may hover between 83.05 and 83.25 in Tuesday's session, Dilip Parmar, a foreign exchange research analyst at HDFC Securities, said.

Core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) inflation, the U.S. Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, rose 0.1% month-on-month in November, less than the 0.2% expected by economists polled by Reuters.

The core PCE price index rose 3.2% year-on-year in November, the smallest rise since April 2021.

The data is likely to support bets that the Fed will begin easing policy rates soon. Investors are currently pricing a slightly less than 90% chance that the Fed will cut rates at its March meeting, according to CME Group's FedWatch tool.

Meanwhile, rupee forward premiums ticked up with the 1-year implied yield rising 2 basis points to 1.77%.

Forward premiums could have more room to rise as the "paying bias" is likely to continue in the near-term, a foreign exchange trader at a private bank said.

Forward premiums have been supported by rising Fed rate cut bets even as the Reserve Bank of India is expected to stay on an extended pause.