India’s cotton growers are likely to face the heat of climate change in 2024 after a fall in cotton seed production by 30–40% in the kharif season in 2023. Experts believe it’s time that a review of changing weather conditions and their impact on seeds be done.
Ram Kaundinya, adviser to the Federation of Seed Industry of India, told CNBC-TV18, “Seed production takes place a year before cotton is grown. So, low seed production this year means not enough seeds to grow cotton in the coming cropping season, which is likely to hurt cotton production in 2024.” He added, “Seed production is likely to drop 30 to 40%.”
He elaborated that the seed supply in 2023 was already tight. “So, for 2024, that opening inventory will be very minimal.” Usually, every year, the industry carries over a crore of packets in opening inventory.
Usually, the demand is for 4.5 crore packets, but the availability will be around 3–3.5 crore packets. “There is no opening stock. So, the actual sales will also be affected. This is the situation for next year. Normally, the cotton seed production is 5 crore packets.”
The seed production has dropped due to acute water shortage and extreme heat in the seed-growing states like Telangana, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka and so on during the seed-growing season. Kaundinya added, “I think the weather pattern is undergoing a change. So, we will have to review the cropping patterns going forward.”
Further, seed companies are likely to feel the pinch, as seed growers will expect higher purchase prices from the companies due to the shortage. “But in the end, the selling price will be fixed by the government. So, the margins of the industry will get squeezed.”
However, the industry doesn’t feel the demand for cotton seed is rising any time soon. “Demand will not go beyond 4 crore packets,” he added. “Cotton production is coming down because of a slump in demand and stagnant yields. Lack of introduction of new technologies is hurting yields.” Kaundinya believes this is concerning.
As per the first estimates of the Cotton Association of India (CAI), production is likely to be at 29.5 million bales for the cropping year 2023-2024. This is about 7-8% lower compared to last year, which stood at 31.9 million bales.
