homemarket NewsBottomline | Finding value in frothy markets

Bottomline | Finding value in frothy markets

Growth prospects, quality of management, brand value and governance standards are just a few of the other aspects that require evaluation before you put your money in a stock.

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By Sonal Sachdev  Feb 25, 2024 10:22:59 AM IST (Published)

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Bottomline | Finding value in frothy markets
With indices scaling new highs it can be foolish to place big equity bets, but there are pockets of value if you look hard enough.

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When Jamie Dimon sells shares in JP Morgan, Jeff Bezos in Amazon and The Walton Family in Walmart, you take note. Sobering comments on future returns from the sage of Omaha, Warren Buffett, and Berkshire Hathaway’s high cash pile don’t inspire much confidence in the market either. And with stocks like Nvidia adding record value in a session, there’s a fear of missing out (FOMO) as well as apprehension of getting caught on the wrong foot. At times like this, it pays to look for a margin of safety by hiding in value stocks.
We ran the numbers on the BSE-500 stocks and found 15 that purely on a set of pre-defined parameters offered some margin of safety. Whether they are investment worthy will require deeper analysis and we’ll leave that to investors to do their homework on that. The moot point here is that if you look hard enough, you’ll find value in any market, only in a frothy market the task becomes that much harder.

HEALTHY CASH YIELDS

Cash being supreme for a business, we first sifted the set on cash flow yields—for the past fiscal and the first half of the current fiscal (as cash flows are disclosed only half-yearly). To our surprise, there are a good bunch of companies offering cash yields of over 5-6% on FY23 cash flows and annualized FY24 half-yearly cash flows. Some even offer double-digit yields. Here’s a glimpse of yields on the sifted 15.
CASH FLOW YIELDS
CompanyFY23 OCF YieldHY24 OCF Ann Yield
Oil & Natural Gas Corporation Ltd.24.434.7
JK Paper Ltd.27.533.2
Vedanta Ltd.32.828.1
Deepak Fertilisers And Petrochemicals Corporation7.527.5
CESC Ltd.11.522.9
CIE Automotive India Ltd.6.315.7
NTPC Ltd.12.215.0
Oil India Ltd.17.614.5
Power Grid Corporation Of India Ltd.14.514.0
Mahanagar Gas Ltd.6.412.0
Hindustan Zinc Ltd.11.610.8
Petronet LNG Ltd.6.09.9
Sun TV Network Ltd.8.59.2
Hindalco Industries Ltd.16.48.9
Indraprastha Gas Ltd.7.25.6
If we look at some of these stocks from an FY25 price-to-earnings perspective too, some are not terribly expensive, though the growth question is an important one to factor in before venturing in.
VALUATION ON FORWARD EARNINGS
CompanyFY25PE*
Oil & Natural Gas Corporation Ltd.6.5
Oil India Ltd.9.5
CESC Ltd.10.8
Hindalco Industries Ltd.11.8
Sun TV Network Ltd.12.2
Vedanta Ltd.13.4
Petronet LNG Ltd.13.5
NTPC Ltd.15.4
Hindustan Zinc Ltd.15.5
Indraprastha Gas Ltd.15.6
Power Grid Corporation Of India Ltd.15.7
Mahanagar Gas Ltd.16.4
CIE Automotive India Ltd.18.1
JK Paper Ltd.NA
Deepak Fertilisers And Petrochemicals Corporation Ltd.NA
*Kotak Sec estimates
There’s also a margin of safety in many, as they trade a decent discount to their 52-week highs. And that can be comforting to investors wary of catching tops.
DISCOUNT TO HIGHS
CompanyCMP vs 52wk high
Deepak Fertilisers And Petrochemicals Corporation Ltd.-27.3
CIE Automotive India Ltd.-18.9
Hindalco Industries Ltd.-16.5
JK Paper Ltd.-16.3
Indraprastha Gas Ltd.-15.1
CESC Ltd.-13.7
Sun TV Network Ltd.-13.7
Vedanta Ltd.-12.5
Hindustan Zinc Ltd.-9.8
Oil India Ltd.-6.1
Petronet LNG Ltd.-4.0
Oil & Natural Gas Corporation Ltd.-3.3
NTPC Ltd.-3.0
Power Grid Corporation Of India Ltd.-2.5
Mahanagar Gas Ltd.-1.9

NO SUBSTITUTE FOR HOMEWORK

The above is just an illustration of one way to go about scouring for value. However, much more homework needs to go into your investment decision and valuations should not be looked at in isolation. Growth prospects, quality of management, brand value and governance standards are just a few of the other aspects that require evaluation before you put your money in a stock. And if you aren’t cut out for this kind of work, speak to your investment advisor or invest in mutual funds.
Happy investing!

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