Asia stocks gain, dollar steady before US CPI Data

The dollar was little changed, while the Aussie was steady and the yen fluctuated after falling for a fourth day on Tuesday. Australian bonds opened lower, with the 10-year yield rising three basis points to 3.25 percent.

Treasuries were steady, with the policy-sensitive two-year yield remaining above 4 percent. Swap contracts are pricing in about three-in-four odds of another quarter-point Fed hike next month. Traders predict US rates will peak around 5 percent, with policymakers then cutting by at least 50 basis points by year-end.

Comments by Fed officials signaled a divide over the next policy move. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said on Tuesday the US central bank should exercise “prudence and patience” in raising interest rates as policymakers assess just how much last month’s banking turmoil will contribute to tighter lending conditions. Meanwhile, New York Fed President John Williams said officials still have more work to do to bring down prices.

US headline inflation is expected to slow for both the monthly and yearly measures, while the core reading is forecast to ease slightly month-over-month, which corresponds to 5.6% year-on-year and above the headline 5.1% print. Core outpacing headline inflation suggests “recent disinflation has a strong transitory component, and underlying inflation is falling much more slowly,” according to Bloomberg Intelligence.

Absent some sort of major surprise on the upside or the downside on the inflation data, “I would expect that the Fed would increase Fed funds by another 25 basis points,” Belita Ong, chairman of Dalton Investments, said on Bloomberg Television. “We’re already starting to see some impact, but not a huge impact given the strong jobs numbers.”

The International Monetary Fund warned in a report Tuesday it was too soon to sound the all-clear from the turmoil that’s shaken the world financial system, saying the banking breakdowns will likely be a drag on global economic growth. US banks on Friday will kick off what’s forecast to be the worst earnings season since the depths of the pandemic.

Elsewhere, Bitcoin advanced for a fifth day, after climbing above $30,000 on Tuesday for the first time in 10 months. Oil rose above $81 a barrel as the first of a spate of supply-and-demand projections scheduled this week forecast a modest rise in US production. Gold was little changed.