As recession fear grips, Bernstein sees Nifty base at 13,500
Global uncertainties have meant that asset management firm Bernstein is taking the Nifty base in this bear market at 13,500.
Manufacturing growth is slowing globally as China's COVID-19 curbs and Russia's invasion of Ukraine disrupt supply chains. At the same time, the growing risk of a recession in the United States poses a new threat.
The above uncertainties have meant that asset management firm Bernstein is taking the Nifty base in this bear market at 13,500.
Venugopal Garre, MD, Bernstein, speaking to CNBC-TV18, said, "We arrived at something like 13,500 for the index, which we felt was more representative of the downside case."
Also Read | Citi says Nifty earnings growth estimates at risk but these sectors are likely to do well
Garre said that if one looked at the export market share of India, it has hardly moved.
"If at all, there is a marginal increase in market share and that is because we are still exporters of lower-end products, which are closer to commodity. So, to the extent we benefit a bit more when commodities go up,” he said.
Thus, Bernstein sees the consumer sector volume growth to stay sluggish and thus it is not too positive on that sector.
So, which are the silver linings?
According to Bernstein, transport, telecom, and real estate are the sectors where maximum growth is expected while IT utilities, energy, and materials will see modest growth.
Garre felt that the auto volumes are also still below pre-COVID levels and, thus, there is no froth in the stock pricing. Moreover, the healthcare sector inventory risks are seen receding and thus costs may surprise on the downside.
For the full discussion, please watch the video
(Edited by : Abhishek Jha)
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