India hopes for abundant monsoon rains with El Nino weakening; here's what IMD says

The Meteorological Department said on Friday that the country was expected to face a warmer start to the summer season this year, with El Nino conditions likely to persist throughout the season. The IMD has predicted that there will be more heatwave days than normal in certain regions, particularly over peninsular India, including Andhra Pradesh, Telangana and north interior Karnataka. Additionally, many parts of Maharashtra and Odisha are also expected to experience higher temperatures than usual.

According to the IMD, the El Nino phenomenon is expected to transition to a ‘neutral’ phase before the onset of the monsoon season. Indian weather scientists, who are closely monitoring developments, have also suggested that the possible onset of La Nina conditions by June–August could lead to improved monsoon rains compared to last year.

Despite the optimistic outlook regarding La Nina and its potential benefits for the monsoon season, the Met Department is exercising caution. They have highlighted the challenge posed by the ‘spring predictability barrier’, which is known to complicate forecasting efforts. This barrier refers to a period in the spring when weather models struggle to make accurate predictions, particularly regarding the transition from El Nino to La Nina conditions.

Madhavan Rajeevan, former secretary of the Ministry of Earth Sciences, has weighed in on the monsoon forecast, offering a glimmer of hope for India’s agricultural sector. Rajeevan, in an official statement, stated that there was a high probability of La Nina developing by June–July, potentially bringing favourable conditions for the southwest monsoon. Even if El Nino transitions into ENSO-neutral conditions, as expected, Rajeevan believes that the monsoon will be better than last year.

According to the Monsoon Mission Coupled Forecast System's (MMCFS) findings, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is likely to remain in a neutral state this season. The IOD is a climate phenomenon characterised by differences in sea surface temperatures between the western and eastern Indian Oceans. A neutral IOD means that these temperature differences are not significant, which can have implications for regional weather patterns.

The MMCFS is a forecasting tool that combines data from the ocean, atmosphere, and land to predict long-term weather patterns, especially focusing on the monsoon.

The southwest monsoon is a lifeline for India, accounting for approximately 70% of the country’s annual rainfall. This rainfall is crucial for the agriculture sector, which contributes to about 14% of India’s GDP and employs over half of the country’s 1.4 billion population.

The IMD is set to release its first forecast for the 2024 monsoon season (June–September) in April.