Maharashtra may see 60 lakh COVID-19 cases in 3rd wave, Mumbai 1.36 lakh per day at peak: Report

Over 2,000 patients from just Pune and Mumbai are expected to require ICU support, and nearly one lakh people may require hospitalisation. Together, the two cities will need around 520MT of oxygen.

Similar forecasts have been made for the populous districts of Thane, Nagpur and Nashik.

The report from the Public Health Department of Maharashtra follows a similarly grim outlook shared by the National Institute of Disaster Management, under the Ministry of Home Affairs, about the potential third wave in October.

The report titled ‘Third Wave Preparedness: Children Vulnerability and Recovery,’ predicted up to six lakh daily cases during the peak of the third wave in one of its scenarios. The second wave’s daily caseload peaked at four lakh, while the first wave peaked at one lakh cases.

“The emergence of a third wave could be significantly challenged by expanding vaccination but only around 7.6 per cent (10.4 crore) are fully vaccinated… According to a recent study done by professors and alumni from Pandit Deendayal Energy University (PDEU) in collaboration with Nirma University, the vaccination rate of India is currently 3.2 per cent which, if does not improve, India can witness six lakh cases per day in the next (third) wave,” the report stated.

The severity of the potential third wave now largely depends on vaccination and the government’s management of clusters of infections. Matters may worsen considerably if SARs-CoV-2 manages to mutate into other highly virulent variants.

Also read: India may be in endemic stage of COVID-19, says WHO expert; what that means

However, several experts say that a third wave of the pandemic is not possible through the current variants in the country. Their claims are backed by recent sero surveys that have been conducted, including one by the World Health Organization (WHO) in tandem with AIIMS. The seropositivity results show that 66-86 percent of Indians already have antibodies for COVID-19.

It is the remaining individuals without any antibodies that make up around 40 crore people who are at risk. These ‘vulnerable’ pockets of population present chances for the SARs-CoV-2 to infect and further mutate, spelling trouble for the entire populace.