Kerala COVID cases unlikely to lead to nationwide third wave: Dr Rijo John

In an interview to Shereen Bhan, Dr Anish TS, Member of COVID Task Force, Government of Kerala, said around 90 percent of deaths are happening in the elderly as people are hesitant to go to hospital.

"Majority of the deaths are happening at home. The data which was shown before the chief minister showed that some of the patients are dying within a day or two of hospitalisation and that suggests that these people were admitted at the hospital at a later stage. If these people would have been admitted 2 days prior, these people might have been saved."

Dr Anish said, "Around 90 percent of deaths are happening in the elderly. In Kerala what is happening is, people are hesitant to go to hospital. If an elderly person is kept at home, the problem is that sometimes the disease may become much worse in a few days' time. I perceive that it is that segment of population - elderly people with comorbidities - there may be a delay in getting to hospital and it is not because the beds are not available with hospitals. If you see the data, you can see that in certain districts almost 40 percent of the beds are available but somehow these people are kept at home and there is reluctance on people's part to take them to hospital."

Dr Rijo John, Health Economist and Guest Faculty at IIM Kozhikode said, the current surge in cases in Kerala is unlikely to result in a nationwide third wave.

"I do not believe that the current surge in cases in Kerala is resulting in a third wave in the rest of the country but in Kerala it may be the third wave. The rest of India has already passed through a major wave of the delta variant wherein the country has already reached 70 percent or more of the seroprevalence or immunity against the delta variant."

John said, "Vaccinations do not protect against infection. They protect only against severe cases and hospitalisation. So increasing number of daily reported cases despite high vaccinations is fine, there is no irony here."