India reported over 2.75 lakh new COVID-19 cases on April 18, the highest single-day record for infections since the outbreak of the pandemic. The country also recorded the highest deaths at 1,620 yesterday, which has led a number of states to heighten curbs and restrictions. The positivity rate of the infections across the country has doubled to 16.7 percent within 12 days.
The surge in cases in the second wave began in February end, which was in stark contrast to earlier predictions by experts, who claimed cases would decrease from February 2021.
Scientists and public health experts are now trying to figure out whether this new second wave is a result of mismanagement of the COVID-19 ravaged situation. Large social gatherings like the Kumbh Mela and political rallies across the country have added to the number of COVID-19 cases.
One question that has troubled many is when will the second wave hit its peak and begin to decline?
In 2020, an MIT study had predicted that India would be the worst-hit country in the world. The study said that the country would see 2.87 lakh cases a by mid-May 2021. As of April 2021, India is seeing nearly 2.7 lakh cases a day.
However, a recent Credit Suisse study has predicted that the meteoric rise in the COVID-19 cases, would decline rapidly. This would be as a result of a larger population of the country developing antibodies to fight COVID-19.
Moreover, 19 percent of the population will have received at least one dose of the vaccine by early May. India is currently producing two vaccines, Serum Institute's Covishield and Bharat Biotech's Covaxin. Russia's Sputnik V vaccine is also set to be available in India from June as indigenous production begins.
However, according to one of the top virologists in the country, the daily case numbers may top more than 3 lakh a day before the peak of the COVID-19 second wave starts to decline. This peak is expected to happen in May. By that time, India might be the worst affected country in the world, experts suggest.
Currently, many states have imposed curfew or partial lockdown to curb the spread of the virus. The move is also expected to provide the country's fragile and overworked healthcare system some breathing room to provide aid for various patients.
Many states are starting to face a shortage of hospital beds, oxygen units, vaccines and even space in hospitals to take care of the ever-increasing number of COVID-19 patients.
According to experts, it is absolutely essential that the government does everything possible to reduce the number of infections to alleviate the load on the country’s hospitals.
Until the end of May, when we may see some much-needed respite from new COVID-19 infections, we must do everything to ensure that the virus is not spread around to infect more people, experts observe.
